A couple of big-serving giants will face off in the second round of the US Open, as Matteo Berrettini takes on Taylor Fritz. Both of them stand at six feet and five inches, allowing them to see all corners of the court well.
That matters because our US Open bet of the day is about those angles and their massive serves. Keep reading to find out why we consider this the best value bet on day three of the US Open in New York.
US Open Day Two Best Bets
Fritz and Berrettini are some of the best servers on the ATP Tour. Both of them will be locked in from the start, knowing how small the margins of this matchup are. You won’t see many breaks here, and they know it too.
Below odds form our recommended tennis sportsbooks.
Berrettini vs Fritz Predictions:
- First set over 10.5 games @ 2.37 | +137
- Over 1.5 tiebreaks @ 2.62 | +162
- Berrettini to win first set 7-6 @ 6.00 | +500
There is very logical reasoning behind these picks, which we explain below. Spoiler alert: their last match had two tiebreaks, and Berrettini is on a seven-breaker winning streak.
Berrettini vs Fritz Preview
Matteo Berrettini is having a career-best year when it comes to serving. He is holding his serve at a career-high rate, which means that he is not getting broken often at all. It’s even better on a somewhat quicker surface like this one, though this isn’t the quickest hard court out there.
Fritz generally holds his serve at a high rate too, because he’s just very solid. The American has good weapons from both sides, allowing him to easily convert any shorter return. He’s also generally the better hitting talent than Berrettini, which will allow him to hold games which feature longer rallies.
We expect to see more rallies on Fritz’s serve because Berrettini tends to have a more devastating serve power-wise. They’re similar in that regard, but regardless of who does better, both should dominate on the serve.
They did in their first-round matches, and there is no reason to believe that trend will change. Both will know how important it is to hold serve, which is why we expect them to take this part of the match very seriously.
After all, their previous match ended in two tiebreaks, and that’s not by chance. It’s just a matchup of margins where every game matters a lot and they know that.
This surface isn’t as quick as that one at the United Cup, but we predict a similar game plan from both. Neither will look to risk much at the start, and it’s very likely that we end up in a tiebreak, which would make this bet huge value.
Once somebody wins the first set, there’s a chance they both go more off-script, but this is a very likely outcome in the first set. Fritz played a close opening set in his previous match, winning it 7-5, which would still win our over 10.5 bet.
Berrettini went to a tiebreak against Albert Ramos Vinolas, and he’s nowhere the talent Fritz is. Everything we’ve seen from their previous matches also indicates a close opening set.
The magnitude of the match only contributes to this because nobody will be risking too much early. With the way the US Open plays and how tricky it can be to break, betting on a tight first set is the play.
We expect it will go Berrettini’s way as well, given the Italian has won seven straight breakers coming into this match, and is 14-3 for the year in tiebreaks.
