Looking ahead to the 2025 Australian Open, I was curious and looked up the stats on the top ten players since the US Open. Do the fall matches affect how they perform at the beginning of the year?
- Jannik Sinner
He is the clear favorite. After winning the US Open, he has gone 25-1. He’s rested with no wear and tear to note. The quality of wins during the fall has been solid, too, with wins over Novak, Paul, Draper, Fritz (three times), Medvedev (two times). One win I am keeping an eye on. Tomas Machac. More on him later.
- Alexander Zverev
Record-wise, he looks ok since the US Open. 17-5. The record is a little sneaky IMO. Three wins at the end of the year versus top ten players and three top ten losses (all to Fritz). The two other losses came to Goffin (66) and Musetti (17). He is not my strongest pick going into the Aussie. After re-watching some of the fall matches, I feel as though there are a few holes that will show. As much as I would like to see Zverev holding a grand slam trophy, I think semis is asking too much (this comes without seeing the draw).
- Carlos Alcaraz
His record this fall was 16-5. The results were a mixed bag. He won Beijing (d-Sinner in the final), but I feel he was running on fumes by the end of the season (probably mentally and physically). Life at the top comes with a price. I also wonder how the rest of the tour is handling Sinner’s positive test (meaning, some players are probably adjusting what they are “putting” into their bodies. For years I have been saying that players are blood doping (like Lance Armstrong did throughout the Tour de France. I’m not sure if the ATP even checks for EPO. Regardless. Carlos is a favorite every time he walks on the court. I would not be surprised to see a Sinner/Alcaraz final.
- Taylor Fritz
15-7. I was not a fan of Fritz early on. I saw him go apeshit on the practice courts at the US Open a few years back and never really followed him after that (He might have been 19 or 20 at the time. Who wasn’t a pain in the ass at that age?). So, I started watching more Fritz matches this fall and I have become a fan. He’s made a lot of progress in his point structure. I thought he was all flash but I’ve noticed some changes in the way he navigates tactically through the matches based on establishing patterns and adaptation. Thank Michael Russell for that. I also think he is a favorite heading into the Aussie. Semis/Finals
- Daniil Medvedev
I’m a fan. He’s the mad scientist of the baseline. He’s had a so-so fall. 11-8. Don’t let the so-so fall foul ya. He’ll be fine by the Aussie. Sometimes, it’s hard to stay on one path when you add other things into your life. I don’t know how the touring pros manage all their obligations. I can’t imagine what it’s like to travel alone, with coaches, with spouses or with kids. For some, it might be easy. Like the movie Multiplicity, sometimes I wished I could have another me to take care of some aspects of life while I took care of the rest. Al Pacino had a funny line in one of his movies, “Have you ever had the feeling that you wanted to stay, yet also had the feeling that you wanted to go.” -Jimmy Durante. Anyway. Depending on the draw and looking at past results, Med plays well at the Aussie. QF minimum. I don’t see him getting through the semis, unfortunately.
- Casper Ruud
This is the first losing record of the fall that I’ve come across. 7-11. Five first-round losses and a loss at the Laver Cup. I just don’t think he has enough game to make it past the top 10-15 players despite his top 10 ranking.
- Novak
He was 8-2 this fall. He’s playing it smart at his age. He’s shown he is the master at “peaking” at the right times. Anyone 40 years old and above knows that luck has a little to do with staying healthy. The body just doesn’t respond like it used to. It’s amazing that he can continue at this level at his age. With all the tools at his disposal, I would assume he has some sort of AI help that minimizes the amount of damage he puts himself in. That’s why he uses the middle of the court to reset patterns etc. As good as he is (was), I see this coming year as being maybe a Wimbledon run and nothing else. The draw at the Aussie has to be favorable. Still he is 3rd favorite in the Australian Open betting winner odds.
- Andrey Rublev
9-10 since the US Open. Four top ten losses. 0 top ten wins. And five losses from players ranked 96, 65, 217 (Wawrinka), 23, 29. Here’s another player I would like to see holding a grand slam, but when you rely heavily on +1, +2, and +3 combos on both sides of the game and don’t have another option to relieve stress (by moving forward, by learning how to develop 4, 5, and 6 ball manipulation combos, by not understanding how LOAD combos can coexist with the other plans…he will always be the bridesmaid and never the bride.
- Alex De Minaur
Alex has a winning record since the US Open. 11-9. I still see him as an early-round pest. Someone you don’t want to play. There are some patterns he struggles against. Patterns the top players use against him that will always cause trouble. It also doesn’t work in his favor that his ball fight stays the same throughout the match. Players lock into it. R16 result would be solid.
- Grigor Dimitrov
Record-wise, Grigor was 13-5. A lot of the wins were against lower-ranked players. Be that as it may, last year’s Brisbane winner is still a dark horse (but there are a lot of others like him that have the same chances at the Aussie).
