Fonseca vs. Humbert
Head-to-Head: 0-1
Joao Fonseca comes into this match with impressive momentum, having won six consecutive matches. Last week, he claimed the Challenger title in Phoenix, defeating Bublik in straight sets. This is his debut season at the Miami Masters, and in the first round, he secured a hard-fought victory against Tien in three sets.
Ugo Humbert, on the other hand, has won three of his last five matches. He was recently eliminated in the third round of Indian Wells by Rune in a tight three-set match. At last season’s Miami Masters, Humbert lost in the third round to Koepfer in a similarly close contest. Humbert has never progressed past the third round in Miami.
Best Bet: Although the bookies have this match as a 50-50 contest, we believe Humbert’s experience and stronger record at the Masters 1000 level will give him the edge. Fonseca struggled in his opening match against Tien, and we expect Humbert to capitalize on that.
Value Bet: Ugo Humbert to win @ 1.80
Fils vs. Diallo
Head-to-Head: 1-1
Arthur Fils has won three of his last five matches, including a solid run at Indian Wells where he made it to the quarterfinals before being stopped by Medvedev in a competitive three-set match.
Gabriel Diallo, like Fils, has won three of his last five matches. Although Diallo did not qualify for the main draw in Miami initially, he entered as a lucky loser following several withdrawals. In the first round, Diallo won in straight sets against Etcheverry.
Best Bet: The bookies favor Fils in this matchup, and we agree with that assessment. As a top-20 player, Fils had a strong showing in Indian Wells and is expected to have the upper hand here. We anticipate a comfortable win for Fils. Read more about the current racquet of Arthur Fils.
Value Bet: Arthur Fils -3.5 games handicap @ -106
Davidovich Fokina vs. Tiafoe
Head-to-Head: 1-2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina enters this match having won three of his last five matches, including a straight-set victory over Struff in the first round of Miami. His form has been solid, saving all seven breakpoints against Struff. Last year in Miami, Davidovich Fokina was eliminated in the third round by Ruud.
Frances Tiafoe has had a rough patch recently, winning just two of his last five matches. In Indian Wells, he was eliminated in the third round by Watanuki. Tiafoe struggled throughout last season, and he has never reached the quarterfinals at the Miami Masters.
Best Bet: While the bookies list this as a 50-50 matchup, we believe Davidovich Fokina’s strong recent form and successful start to the season will give him the advantage over Tiafoe, who has been inconsistent. Expect Davidovich Fokina to maintain his form and secure a win here.
Value Bet: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win @ 1.73
