The long road to Roland-Garros has begun this week with the Monte-Carlo Masters kicking off on Sunday. This begins seven straight weeks of action on the European clay leading up to the 2025 French Open in late May. With the first third of the ATP season being one of the most mercurial in recent memory, who will secure what seeding at the year’s next major? Read also our general guide to the French Open.
2025 French Open Seed Predictions
Over the next seven weeks, players can compete in a maximum of five events (Monte-Carlo, either Barcelona or Munich, Madrid, Rome, then either Hamburg or Geneva). However, any points gained in Hamburg or Geneva won’t count towards Roland-Garros seeding, as it will be decided before those events have concluded.
That means that the maximum number of points players can add to their rankings between now and Paris, if they play everything and go undefeated, is 3,500 points.
Here’s how the rankings currently stand for the top 16, what points players have to defend over the coming events, and how we forecast this translating to Roland-Garros seeding.
| Who will be seeded at the 2025 French Open? | |||
| Player | Current points | Points to defend (Monte-Carlo to Paris) | Seed prediction |
| Jannik Sinner | 10,330 | 600 | 1 |
| Alexander Zverev | 7,645 | 1,200 | 3 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 6,720 | 200 | 2 |
| Taylor Fritz | 5,290 | 775 | 6 |
| Novak Djokovic | 4,510 | 450 | 4 |
| Jack Draper | 3,780 | 120 | 5 |
| Casper Ruud | 3,765 | 1,260 | 9 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 3,445 | 1,530 | 10 |
| Andrey Rublev | 3,440 | 1,050 | 14 |
| Alex de Minaur | 3,335 | 350 | 7 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3,290 | 400 | 13 |
| Holger Rune | 3,270 | 400 | 8 |
| Tommy Paul | 3,160 | 450 | 16 |
| Ben Shelton | 2,690 | 100 | 11 |
| Arthur Fils | 2,670 | 335 | 12 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 2,650 | 290 | 15 |
Seeds 1-4: Djokovic gets his own quarter
- Jannik Sinner
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Alexander Zverev
- Novak Djokovic
First of all, the crucial top four seeds. We expect Taylor Fritz to drop out of the top four over the clay season, and Alexander Zverev to cede second spot to Carlos Alcaraz. Importantly, Novak Djokovic will move back to the world No 4 spot, securing his own quarter at the French Open.
Zverev and Alcaraz have both been in patchy form, so it’s highly unlikely either put together the points necessary to overtake Jannik Sinner in top spot. However, of the two, we’re more confident that Alcaraz will come right and bag some points, moving ahead of Zverev, who has a greater chunk to defend. For those betting on the Monte Carlo Masters, Alcaraz is currently big favorite among the bookies at around 2.60 or +160 to win the event.
For Fritz, he has almost twice as many points to defend as Djokovic does. The American is currently fighting an ab injury and has withdrawn from Monte-Carlo, whereas Djokovic is in the best form we’ve seen from him at this time of year since 2016.
Seeds 5-8: Draper secures first top-eight seeding at major
- Jack Draper
- Taylor Fritz
- Alex de Minaur
- Holger Rune
We’re expecting a major shake up for seeds five through eight. Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas traditionally thrive at this time of year, so it’s a big call to pick against either making the cut here. However, each have been on the decline for several years now and have four-figure points to defend over the coming weeks.
Instead, we like the trio of Jack Draper, Alex de Minaur and Holger Rune to rise, each of whom have 400-or-less points to defend. They’ve all been in better form than Ruud and Tsitsipas. We do need to respect Fritz’s consistency though, and have ‘Claylor’ coming in at No 6, assuming his injury comes right soon.
Seeds 9-16: Dangerous floaters in Tsitsipas, Ruud and Rublev
- Casper Ruud
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Ben Shelton
- Arthur Fils
- Daniil Medvedev
- Andrey Rublev
- Lorenzo Musetti
- Tommy Paul
Instead, we expect Ruud and Tsitsipas to be floating in the No 9-16 range, making them dangerous round-of-16 opponents for the big names at Roland-Garros. We also see Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils rising, as each have minimal points to defend and are in strong form.
Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev should hold on to top-16 seeding here, but with Rublev defending 1,000 points at Madrid and Medvedev struggling even on his favored hard-courts this year, it’s hard to see either pushing any higher.
Two players we did consider making a push to crack the top-16 seeds were Jakub Mensik and Matteo Berrettini. We think they’ll both fall short, but note that Berrettini (currently No 34) has zero points to defend and Mensik (currently No 23) only has 60.
Seeds 17-32: Fonseca just misses out on seeding
- Jakub Mensik
- Matteo Berrettini
- Grigor Dimitrov
- Frances Tiafoe
- Tomas Machac
- Karen Khachanov
- Francisco Cerundolo
- Denis Shapovalov
- Ugo Humbert
- Sebastian Baez
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Jiri Lehecka
- Sebastian Korda
- Alexei Popyrin
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Given that less than 1,000 points separates the world No 17 and No 32 right now, and a further 1,000 points separates the world No 32 from world No 107, we’d need a pretty big table to break down who’s going to make seeds 17-32 at Roland-Garros.
However, a few of our higher level takes are that Alejandro Tabilo and Felix Auger-Aliassime will miss out on seeding. These two have 785 and 750 points to defend each, and neither look in the kind of form necessary to do so.
The likes of Frances Tiafoe, Ugo Humbert and Hubert Hurkacz should remain seeds even though they are struggling from poor form or injury, and none have significant points on the line. Expect Sebastian Baez to move up, however, as with Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
We did consider up-and-coming superstar Joao Fonseca as an option to crack seeding at this year’s French Open. However, he has close to 10% of his points dropping over the clay swing, and would need to make two deep runs in order to compensate and make the 1,500-or-so points needed to gain seeding. We think he’ll go close, but fall just short.
