Only four players to go at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters and the defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas is out, following an impressive win by Musetti on Friday. Now the Italian is up against an in-form Alex de Minaur and in the other semifinal we find betting favorite Carlos Alcaraz against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Let’s look at our predictions for the Monte Carlo Masters betting of Saturday.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Carlos Alcaraz
April 12, 2025
Head-to-Head: 0–1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won four of his last five matches. In Monte Carlo this week, he began his campaign with a hard-fought three-set victory over Ben Shelton. In the second round, he defeated Tomás Martín Etcheverry in straight sets, despite trailing 0–2 at the start of the match. He then overcame Jack Draper in a grueling three-set encounter that lasted nearly three hours. In today’s quarterfinal match, Davidovich Fokina dominated Alexei Popyrin, winning in straight sets without offering a single breakpoint. Last year at this event, he was eliminated in the opening round by Sebastian Korda in straight sets.
Carlos Alcaraz has secured three wins in his last five matches. In Monte Carlo, he began with a three-set victory over Francisco Cerundolo. After losing the first set 3–6, Alcaraz found his rhythm and dropped only one game over the next two sets. In the round of 16, he comfortably defeated Daniel Altmaier in straight sets, although he did offer 10 breakpoints. His most challenging match came today in the quarterfinals against Arthur Fils. After dropping the first set and facing three consecutive breakpoints in the second, Alcaraz managed to stay composed and eventually turned the match in his favor.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
Despite bookmakers listing Alcaraz as the favorite, we hold a different opinion. Davidovich Fokina has been exceptionally consistent this week in Monte Carlo, needing just one hour to win his quarterfinal match. In contrast, Alcaraz has not yet displayed his peak form, and we expect a closely contested match.
For that reason, a handicap bet on Davidovich Fokina to cover the spread offers good value.
Value bet / best available odds:
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +4.5 games handicap at 1.91 or -110
Additional Bet
Although Alcaraz leads the head-to-head with a previous straight-sets win on clay, his recent form has not been convincing. Meanwhile, Davidovich Fokina is playing with confidence and producing some of his best tennis. An upset is certainly within reach.
Value bet / best available odds:
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win at 4.50 or +350
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaur
April 12, 2025
Head-to-Head: 1–1
Lorenzo Musetti has also won four of his last five matches. In Monte Carlo, he claimed victories in his first two matches, both in three closely contested sets. In the quarterfinals today, Musetti defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in another tight three-set match. After a lopsided 1–6 first set, he adjusted his game by reducing unforced errors and completed the comeback.
Alex de Minaur enters the semifinals having won four of his last five matches. In his opening round, he came from behind to beat Tomas Machac in three sets. In the quarterfinals, he delivered a commanding performance against Grigor Dimitrov, winning 6–0, 6–0 in just 45 minutes.
Best Bet to Make
According to bookmakers, de Minaur is favored to win this match, and we agree with that assessment. He has been outstanding throughout the week, while Musetti has had to grind through every match and has spent significantly more time on court. We expect de Minaur to maintain his dominant form.
Value bet / best available odds:
Alex de Minaur to win at 1.62 or -162.5
