The second clay Masters of the season will be played in Madrid as usual, following Alcaraz win in Monte Carlo, and it’s the first of the two dual Masters that are a joint event. Both the ATP and WTA will be in Madrid for the upcoming week, so let’s take a closer look at how this unique tournament could unfold.
Read on for a breakdown of both draws, with a quarter-by-quarter analysis of seeds, matches to watch, and potential upsets of the Madrid Open 2025.
ATP Madrid Masters draw
A total of 96 men will fight it out for the Madrid Open title over seven rounds, with the top 32 seeds getting byes straight into the second round. Here’s how we expect it will unfold.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (1)
- Andrey Rublev (7)
- Ben Shelton (12)
- Arthur Fils (13)
- Francisco Cerundolo (20)
- Jakub Mensik (22)
- Alexei Popyrin (25)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (28)
Matches to watch
- Nuno Borges vs Pablo Carreno Busta (first round)
- Andrey Rublev vs Gael Monfils (second round)
The first quarter is an interesting one that features a lot of players who could do some damage here. Madrid is a high-altitude event where the ball flies really quickly and the court plays faster than usual. It allows strong servers to thrive, which is why Zverev has won here in the past.
He’s coming off a win in Munich, so he will be in good spirits and good form heading into this one, probably the favorite on paper to come out of this quarter. There are other strong players here as well who can make an impact. Read more about Zverev’s current racquet setup.
Andrey Rublev has played well here over the years and is the defending champion. He’s a contender. Gael Monfils is another player who could make things interesting. Alexei Popyrin will be dangerous because of his serve, and the same goes for Jakub Mensik.
Francisco Cerundolo has looked pretty good this year as well. Ben Shelton is playing well right now, and his serve will help him, while Arthur Fils has been quietly impressive this year—capable of beating anybody on clay, including Zverev, whom he bested last year in the Hamburg final.
It’s a really intriguing quarter that could go either way, but we predict that Fils comes out on top by beating Rublev.
Our prediction: Fils beats Rublev
Quarter two
Seeds
- Taylor Fritz (3)
- Holger Rune (8)
- Daniil Medvedev (9)
- Casper Ruud (14)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (18)
- Sebastian Korda (23)
- Hubert Hurkacz (27)
- Brandon Nakashima (31)
Matches to watch
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (second round)
- Hubert Hurkacz vs Marin Cilic (second round)
This quarter is much weaker compared to the one above because it doesn’t have the same number of strong players nor players in good form. Taylor Fritz fits well in Madrid but hasn’t really shown much on clay so far. Holger Rune is in great shape and playing some amazing tennis lately. More on Holger Rune’s racquet and gear.
Daniil Medvedev doesn’t like to play on clay and isn’t in good form right now. Casper Ruud is very hot and cold, though capable of playing strong tennis on occasion, while Felix Auger-Aliassime is as inconsistent as the weather.
Sebastian Korda has played some amazing tennis here in the past, but mostly in doubles. Hubert Hurkacz has had some good runs, but he’s not in any kind of form right now, and Brandon Nakashima isn’t exactly known for being a great clay player.
Rune is by far the best player here and in the best form, so we expect him to come through, winning this one rather easily.
Our prediction: Rune beats Korda
Quarter three
Seeds
- Novak Djokovic (4)
- Jack Draper (5)
- Tommy Paul 11)
- Frances Tiafoe (16)
- Ugo Humbert (21)
- Karen Khachanov (24)
- Matteo Berrettini (30)
- Sebastian Baez (32)
Matches to watch
- Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi (second round)
- Joao Fonseca vs Tommy Paul (second round)
This quarter is most notable because it has Novak Djokovic in it. The quarter itself isn’t anything special because, again, there are a lot of players who look good on paper but aren’t playing great tennis right now.
Djokovic is one of the favorites to come out of this quarter, but not the biggest favorite. That would be Jack Draper, simply because the conditions in Madrid are likely to suit his style of play. It’s the clay court where you can expect him to perform best compared to the others.
Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe are both capable of doing some damage, but neither are expected to make a deep run. Ugo Humbert is another serve-heavy player who could make an impact, as could Karen Khachanov.
Matteo Berrettini is the wild card because he has played amazingly here in the past, and with his serve and forehand, he certainly could do a lot of damage if he finds his best level. Sebastian Baez is unlikely to do much here because the conditions don’t favor him.
We’re going to stick with our prediction that Draper comes out of this one by beating Matteo Berrettini.
Our prediction: Draper beats Berrettini
Quarter four
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (2)
- Alex de Minaur (6)
- Lorenzo Musetti (10)
- Grigor Dimitrov (15)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (17)
- Tomas Machac (19)
- Jiri Lehecka (26)
- Denis Shapovalov (29)
Matches to watch
- Lorenzo Musetti vs Hamad Medjedovic (second round)
- Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Sonego (second round)
This is an intriguing quarter as well because it has Carlos Alcaraz in it. The two-time champion is slated to play, though he picked up an injury in Barcelona that might hamper him. He’s by far the biggest favorite here if he plays well and is healthy—time will tell.
The others are capable of making things interesting. Alex de Minaur has looked great on clay, and Lorenzo Musetti is really solid on the surface as well. Jiri Lehecka can be dangerous in such conditions thanks to the power he brings, as can Stefanos Tsitsipas with his clay game.
Tomas Machac is always good for an upset, and Denis Shapovalov isn’t a pushover either, so it’s a quarter that could yield quite a bit of surprises, making it one to watch closely. If we assume that Alcaraz is healthy, we’re taking him to advance by beating Jiri Lehecka.
Our prediction: Alcaraz beats Lehecka
Final weekend predictions for men’s Madrid Open
- Semi – Rune beats Fils
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Draper
- Final – Alcaraz beats Rune
Holger Rune was tremendous in Barcelona, and generally, when he’s playing that well, it doesn’t evaporate overnight. We expect him to bring that level to Madrid as well and overcome Fils, who is close to his level but not quite there yet.
Alcaraz will overcome Draper in the second round because he has this event on lock, and Draper, while good, isn’t quite there yet on clay.
In the final, we’ll see Alcaraz avenge his Barcelona loss by beating Holger Rune. It will be the second time in a short time that they will play, and Alcaraz will be prepared this time, and should outplay the Dane.
He was on top of him in Barcelona too, but injury and just lackadaisical play at times cost him in the key moments.
WTA Madrid Open draw
The women’s event in Madrid follows the same format as the men’s, with a 96-player draw over seven rounds, with the top 32 seeds getting byes into the second round. Here’s our analysis:
Quarter one
Seeds
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Qinwen Zheng (8)
- Paula Badosa (9)
- Amanda Anisimova (15)
- Yulia Putintseva (22)
- Marta Kostyuk (24)
- Elise Mertens (28)
- Sofia Kenin (32)
Matches to watch
- Veronika Kudermetova vs Polina Kudermetova (round one)
- Emma Raducanu vs Marta Kostyuk (round two)
This is a nice draw for Aryna Sabalenka, who learned how to play on clay at this event. She didn’t use to be good, but the conditions here suit her in such a way that she enjoys playing here. There are some strong players besides her too.
Qinwen Zheng is capable and has a massive serve. Paula Badosa counts this as her favorite event and is solid on clay with a good serve, while Amanda Anisimova can play well on clay and has powerful weapons.
Marta Kostyuk and Yulia Putintseva are both capable clay players as well, as is Elise Mertens. Emma Raducanu could also be a wild card in your tennis betting, because her combination of weapons can make her a tough opponent to beat. Either way, we expect Sabalenka to come out on top here by beating Kostyuk.
Our prediction: Sabalenka beats Kostyuk
Quarter two
Seeds
- Jessica Pegula (3)
- Jasmine Paolini (6)
- Elena Rybakina (10)
- Daria Kasatkina (14)
- Elina Svitolina (17)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova (21)
- Ons Jabeur (26)
- Magda Linette (29)
Matches to watch
- Elena Rybakina vs Bianca Andreescu (second round)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Victoria Azarenka (second round)
This is arguably the best quarter in the whole draw simply because there are so many great players here. Besides Jesssica Pegula, who is the top seed here, there is also Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina. Both Pegula and Paolini are in good form.
Daria Kasatkina is a capable player who can beat anyone on a given day. Elina Svitolina just won a trophy in Rouen and is looking strong. Alexandrova played well in Stuttgart and has had a deep run in Madrid before.
Ons Jabeur is a former champion of this event, having won it a couple of years ago, and Magda Linette has been a player nobody wants to face for years now. Overall, it does seem like Pegula will be able to get out of here, as she’s more of a finalist as well.
Our prediction: Pegula beats Alexandrova
Quarter three
Seeds
- Coco Gauff (4)
- Mirra Andreeva (7)
- Karolina Muchova (12)
- Beatriz Haddad Maia (16)
- Liudmila Samsonova (18)
- Clara Tauson (20)
- Leylah Fernandez (25)
- Magdalena Frech (27)
Matches to watch
- Clara Tauson vs Belinda Bencic (second round)
- Coco Gauff vs Dayana Yastremska (second round)
Now, this is a very interesting quarter because there is a mix of great players but also players who can be vulnerable. Coco Gauff hasn’t been at her best for a while, and there remain some questions about what she can bring here.
Mirra Andreeva made her breakthrough here a couple of years ago, so she can play really well in Madrid, and she’s had a tremendous year. Find out more about Mirra Andreeva’s racquet. Beatriz Haddad Maia has been struggling for a while, as has Fernandez. Madgalena Frech is decent but not a world-beater, and Liudmila Samsonova is very hot and cold, which applies to Clara Tauson as well.
We think that Andreeva is likely to overcome Gauff here.
Our prediction: Andreeva beats Gauff
Quarter four
Seeds
- Iga Swiatek (2)
- Madison Keys (5)
- Emma Navarro (11)
- Diana Shnaider (13)
- Donna Vekic (19)
- Jelena Ostapenko (23)
- Anna Kalinskaya (30)
- Linda Noskova (31)
Matches to watch
- Madison Keys vs Naomi Osaka (first round)
- Diana Shnaider vs Petra Kvitova (second round)
The draw is a rather interesting one because there are some good players here. Number two Iga Swiatek needs a good run, and she could get it here. Madison Keys is dangerous in these conditions, and Emma Navarro is never easy to beat on a clay court.
Diana Shnaider brings a lot of punch for her size, and Donna Vekic thrives in conditions like this. Jelena Ostapenko is in peak form, having just won Stuttgart, and neither Anna Kalinskaya nor Linda Noskova are easy outs.
Then you have players like Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova, who might not be at their best anymore but can still play good tennis. We expect Ostapenko to beat Swiatek to advance.
Our prediction: Ostapenko beats Swiatek
Final weekend predictions for women’s Madrid Open
- Semi – Sabalenka beats Pegula
- Semi – Andreeva beats Ostapenko
- Final – Andreeva beats Sabalenka
This is one of those events where Sabalenka simply plays well. She loves Madrid, the courts favor her, and she’s going to move past Pegula, who doesn’t have the best matchup against Sabalenka, especially not in these conditions.
Andreeva is another player who should thrive in this setting, and her variety will prove too much for Ostapenko, who needs an opponent that relies on topspin—Andreeva offers much more than that. In the final, we’re going to see a repeat of the Indian Wells match, and once again, Andreeva will win.
More info for betting on the Madrid Masters event.
