The final four have been found in the men’s singles event, and that’s soon going to be whittled down to just two. Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will be hoping to make the tournament’s final match on Sunday, but only one of them can.
In a rematch of last year’s semi-final, who will advance? Will it be the defending champion and bookmakers’ favorite, Alcaraz, or the under-the-radar Medvedev?
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds
To give a little context to our Alcaraz vs Medvedev prediction, here are the latest odds for this semi-final clash:
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.30 | -333
- Daniil Medvedev @ 3.50 | +250
Despite Medvedev being a Grand Slam winner, former No 1, and the reason why top seed Jannik Sinner is on his way back to Italy trophy-less, the Russian is given long odds of winning this match by the bookies. Alcaraz is a heavy favorite at 1.30 (-333), while Medvedev is a moderate underdog at 3.50 (+250).
Alcaraz is given a -4.5 game handicap at 1.73 (-138). Medvedev pays 2.00 (+100) to make the same spread himself. It’s expected that this one will finish in three, with a straight sets win to Alcaraz paying 2.75 (+175). Total games are set at 37.5, paying 1.85 (-118) either way.
Alcaraz vs Medvedev Preview
Carlos Alcaraz
The meteoric rise of Sinner has largely overshadowed the fact that Alcaraz has had a brilliant year in 2024. He’s currently sitting at No 3 in the rankings, with a win-loss of 31-6 this season.
The Spaniard has picked up titles at Indian Wells and the French Open, becoming the youngest man to win Grand Slams on all three surfaces, after winning the US Open and Wimbledon in 2022 and 2023.
Between Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, Alcaraz didn’t have an ideal grass court season. He entered just the one event, and was beaten second round by Jack Draper as defending champion.
However, the third seed has made up for that by putting together a solid campaign here in London. He raced through his first two matches in straight sets, seeing off Mark Lajal and Aleksandar Vukic. Alcaraz then went the distance with No 29 seed Frances Tiafoe, before playing out four-setters against No 16 seed Ugo Humbert and No 12 seed Tommy Paul.
Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev hasn’t had the same level of success as Alcaraz this season, but he’s still maintained a high level.
The 28-year-old is 33-9 on the year, with no titles but several deep runs. He began by making the final of the Australian Open, where he held a two sets to love lead over Sinner before falling in five. Soon after, he also made the final of Indian Wells, losing to Alcaraz in straight sets.
Here at Wimbledon, Medvedev has been steadily going about his business, making the final four for the second year in a row. The Russian began with a straight sets win over Aleksandar Kovasevic, before going to four sets in both the second and third rounds against Alexandre Muller and Jan-Lennard Struff.
This week, he was fortunate to have Grigor Dimitrov retire with an injury part way through the first set. That gave Medvedev ample time to rest and prepare for his clash with top seed Sinner, which he won in five sets.
Sinner was struggling physically in their match, but Medvedev still played good attacking tennis. The No 5 seed struck 56 winners, approaching the next 41 times and making 68 percent of first serves across the four hour long match.
Alcaraz vs Medvedev Predictions
Set your alarms: this is a match you don’t want to miss.
As Medvedev showed against Sinner, he’s not one to be written off. He was a heavy underdog in that clash too, but came out and altered his style to upset the top seed.
We expect he’ll have a few tricks up his sleeve against Alcaraz too. Coming into this clash well rested will be a huge plus for Medvedev too, with the extra day off coming at the perfect time for him after his marathon quarter-final.
But, our prediction is Medvedev will fall agonizingly short once more.
The head-to-head against Alcaraz isn’t in his favor (4-2), nor is his opponent’s brilliant five set record (12-1). We expect this one will be a classic, with the defending champion eking out a narrow victory to book his spot in the final on Sunday.
Prediction: Alcaraz in five sets.
What’s your Alcaraz vs Medvedev prediction at this year’s Wimbledon? Let us know in the comments below!
