Two weeks ago when the Roland-Garros draw was announced, this was the match everyone mentally circled as a blockbuster. And now it’s happening: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner in the French Open semi-finals.
Wimbledon champion vs Australian Open champion. Best two players in the world right now. Head-to-head locked at four each. It doesn’t get any better than this!
Can Sinner live up to his newly acquired world No 1 tag with a victory over his biggest rival, Alcaraz? Or will the Spaniard prove that he’s the new King of Clay and put one hand on the French Open trophy with a win over Sinner?
Read on for our Alcaraz vs Sinner prediction, where we pour over the latest odds, analyze each player’s path to victory, and give our betting tips. In the other semi-final we’ll see Casper Ruud take on Alexander Zverev in what should be another great match-up!
Alcaraz vs Sinner Odds
For a bit of context ahead of this fascinating match up, let’s take a look at the odds at the tennis betting sites ahead of this match up. Here’s how they’re sitting:
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.57 | -175
- Jannik Sinner @ 2.37 | +137
As expected, bookies have this one neck-and-neck. Alcaraz gets the slight advantage across most markets, paying 1.57 (-175) to win outright, compared to Sinner’s 2.37 (+137). The Spaniard is given a -2.5 handicap at 1.83 (-120), while Sinner has the inverse for the same odds.
Set betting is very even across all six permutations. The slight favorites are 3-0 and 3-1 score lines to Alcaraz, both of which pay 4.00 (+300). In terms of how long this one will go, total games over 39.5 is at 1.90 (-110), while the under returns 1.80 (-125). Interestingly, total set betting has four as the lowest market, paying 2.50 (+150).
Head-to-Head – Alcaraz 4, Sinner 4
Tell me a match is going to be close, without telling me a match is going to be close. Alcaraz and Sinner have played eight times, with the pair splitting the meetings 4-4 so far.
Alcaraz won their most recent meeting at Indian Wells just a few months ago, coming back from a set down to win 1-6, 6-3, 6-2. Prior to that, Sinner had won two in a row, in the semi-finals of Beijing and Miami last year.
The pair have met once in Grand Slams – an epic five-setter that went Alcaraz’s way – and once on clay, with Sinner prevailing in three sets.
For the majority of the Alcaraz vs Sinner rivalry, Alcaraz has been the better tennis player. He’s been higher ranked, won more tournaments, and come into their matchups favorite. It’s only in the last nine months that Sinner has really come into his own.
Given that their head-to-head sits at 4-4, does that mean that the Italian now has a big advantage?
Alcaraz vs Sinner Prediction
Past editions of Alcaraz vs Sinner have seen the Italian have success rushing Alcaraz with his pace of shot. When Sinner takes time away from Alcaraz, he’s been less comfortable, and has been able to do less with his big weapons.
Two factors mitigate this strategy of Sinner’s: the surface, and Alcaraz’s willingness to play more dynamically.
The slower clay in Paris will give Alcaraz a split second longer on his shots. We also saw when Alcaraz fell behind in Indian Wells against Sinner, he was willing to change up his game, approach the net and vary his depth a lot more, to counteract Sinner’s tactic.
This essentially puts their match up back on even footing. As a result, we believe the result will pivot around three key factors: the nerves, the forehand, and the fitness.
- Nerves
Alcaraz has been less clutch than Sinner in their rivalry so far, winning and defending less breakpoints than the Italian. We also saw what happens when Alcaraz gets overly excited for a big match, when he played Novak Djokovic in a similarly anticipated clash last Roland-Garros. The Spaniard flamed out and cramped from nervous energy.
Sinner, on the other hand, has proven to be very level-headed and mature in his recent rise up the ATP rankings. However, what will the world No 1 ranking do to his psyche? Will the 22-year-old feel increased pressure now that he’s a favorite?
- Forehand
In terms of where this match is won and lost, we say it’ll be on the forehand. These two both love to run around and hit the inside-out forehand. Across their last two meetings, the player who was able to do this more, won the match.
In Indian Wells, Alcaraz was able to create 16 inside-out forehands to Sinner’s 10, while in Beijing, it was 19-10 in Sinner’s favor. Whoever can take the initiative and get around first on the forehands will gain a significant upper hand in this clash.
- Fitness
Finally, we expect fitness to come into play if this match goes deep. Both came to Paris off the back of injury scares, but with one big difference: Alcaraz’s injury was a hitting-issue (forearm), while Sinner’s was to do with movement (hip). The Italian also spent time in bed sick prior to the French Open.
Bottom line, this means that Sinner can’t be at full capacity fitness-wise. If this goes deep, Alcaraz will have the edge.
Prediction: Alcaraz in five sets. Or Sinner in four. Go flip a coin.
What They’ve Said
Carlos Alcaraz: “I think it is the match that everybody wants to watch. When the draw came out, I think everybody wanted Jannik on my side playing the semi-final.
“Let’s see how it’s going to be, but I think it’s going to be great for tennis and for the fans. Hopefully everyone is going to enjoy that match as much as I’m going to.”
Jannik Sinner: “I came here with some doubts, physical doubts, and my body seems stronger and stronger day by day, which for me was the main goal coming here.
“I’m happy that I have a chance to play here in a very important match for myself in the semis. Then we’ll see what I can do.”
2024 Roland Garros so far
Carlos Alcaraz
Heading into this semi-final, Alcaraz has navigated his way through the Roland-Garros draw seamlessly. Here’s what his path has looked like:
- R1 – Defeated JJ Wolf 6-1, 6-2, 6-1
- R2 – Defeated Jesper de Jong 6-3, 6-4, 2-6, 6-2
- R3 – Defeated Sebastian Korda 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-3
- Round of 16 – Defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-3, 6-3, 6-1
- Quarter-final – Defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 7-6(3), 6-4
The third seed has dropped just one set, a half-hour blip against qualifier Jesper de Jong. Outside of that, he’s been ruthlessly efficient.
Jannik Sinner
For Sinner, here’s how his French Open has unfolded:
- R1 – Defeated Chris Eubanks 6-3, 6-3, 6-4
- R2 – Defeated Richard Gasquet 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
- R3 – Defeated Pavel Kotov 6-4, 6-4, 6-4
- Round of 16 – Defeated Corentin Moutet 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1
- Quarter-final – Defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-2, 6-4, 7-6(3)
The Italian’s path has mirrored Alcaraz’s, with the No 2 seed dropping just one set to Frenchman Corentin Moutet. Other than that, he’s been metronomic with his results.
Can you pick between these two? Let us know in the comments how you see this match going.
