Wimbledon is into its third round, and that means seeds are beginning to collide. Friday brings a potentially blockbusting rematch of the 2022 US Open semi-finals, with defending champion Carlos Alcaraz taking on No 29 seed Frances Tiafoe.
Alcaraz has had the better of the past two years since they last met. But anyone who has followed Tiafoe knows that regardless of his form, he gets up for a big match. Played on Centre Court in front of a packed crowd on Friday, this is certainly one of those matches that will get the best out of ‘Big Foe’.
Who will come out on top in this encounter? This is our Alcaraz vs Tiafoe predictions, complete with a breakdown of each players’ form, the latest bookmaker odds, and our recommendations for the best bets to make on this clash.
Alcaraz vs Tiafoe Odds
Ahead of this third-round match, here’s a look at the Alcaraz vs Tiafoe odds for a little context:
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.07 | -1400
- Frances Tiafoe @ 8.00 | +700
Third seed Alcaraz is a heavy favorite at tennis bookmakers heading into the pair’s clash on Friday. The Spaniard pays just 1.07 (-1400) to defeat Tiafoe, who is on long odds of 8.00 (+700) to cause an upset. Alcaraz is given a sizable handicap of -6.5 at 1.73 (-138), while Tiafoe pays 2.00 (+100) to cover the same spread.
Bookies are strongly expecting this will end in three sets, with Alcaraz 3-0 at 1.61 (-163) in set betting odds. This is reflected in the total games market as well, as under 32.5 games pay just 1.85 (-118).
Alcaraz vs Tiafoe Preview
Carlos Alcaraz
All eyes have been on Jannik Sinner the past six months, but Alcaraz has quietly had a brilliant year. The 21-year-old is 26-6 on the year, with titles in Indian Wells and at last month’s French Open. En route to both titles he was very impressive, defeating three top 10 players in each, including world No 1 Sinner, twice.
Outside of his titles, Alcaraz has had a few injury issues in 2024. He missed a good chunk of the European clay swing with a forearm injury. However, all seems well now, with the Spaniard winning Roland-Garros since then.
The lead-in to Wimbledon was underwhelming for Alcaraz, with the world No 3 losing first round in his Queen’s title defense. He’s more than made up for that though, putting together two strong matches so far in London. First he dismissed qualifier Mark Lajal in straight sets, before giving the same treatment to Australia’s Aleksandar Vukic on Wednesday.
Frances Tiafoe
Things couldn’t have gone more differently for Tiafoe this year.
The American has had some high highs in his career so far–cracking the world’s top 10 and making a Grand Slam semi-final–but he’s also had some low lows. Motivation and consistency are a struggle for the 26-year-old, with 14 losses already in 2024 and a ranking that has slipped to No 29. Notably, 11 of Tiafoe’s losses this year have come at the hands of players outside the world’s top 50.
Tiafoe’s grass season ahead of Wimbledon was unimpressive. The American played at Stuttgart, having won the tournament last year, and crashed out in his second match to Jack Draper. He then backed that up with a first-round loss to Rinky Hijikata at Queen’s.
However, Tiafoe can be encouraged by his performances so far in London. He looked on the brink of yet another early loss, but dug his heels in to come back from two sets to love down in the first round, defeating Matteo Arnaldi. He then put on a clinic against Borna Coric, ousting the Croatian in straight sets to set this clash with Alcaraz.
Alcaraz vs Tiafoe Predictions
If you listen to what the bookmakers are saying, this is going to be a one-sided result to Alcaraz.
There’s certainly an argument for this result. Tiafoe is a shadow of the player which Alcaraz defeated in the 2022 US Open semi-finals, while Alcaraz has grown exponentially as a player over the last two years. One is in red-hot form and defending champion, the other can’t buy a win and is “losing to clowns”.
But we say betting on Alcaraz vs Tiafoe isn’t going to be as simple as what the bookies’ odds say. Here’s why.
Tiafoe gets up for a big match. There’s a reason he’s called ‘Big Foe’: the man loves the big stage and flashing lights. And it doesn’t get any bigger than Centre Court at Wimbledon against the defending champion.
The American has won three of the last four matches he’s played against top five players at Grand Slams. Even in the times he’s lost to big names, Tiafoe puts up a fight: he’s won at least a set in each of the 13 matches he’s played against top 10 players at majors since his debut in 2017.
Getting swept 3-0 is simply not in Big Foe’s DNA when all eyes are on him. His struggles have come away from the spotlight, which is a completely different challenge. We expect he’ll rise to the occasion and put up a good fight here, making Alcaraz work for his place in the round of 16.
Prediction: Alcaraz in four or five.
