Round three of the French Open is here, and this is where the match ups start to get a little more spicy. Squaring off in the bottom half of the draw are Alex de Minaur and Jan-Lennard Struff, in what promises to be a fascinating contest on Saturday.
Can Struff make another deep run on clay? Will De Minaur rekindle his form from earlier this year? Read on for our De Minaur vs Struff prediction, where we answer these questions and outline the best bets to make on this clash.
Alex de Minaur: Hasn’t Quite Mastered Clay
Australia’s De Minaur began 2024 as the hottest thing in tennis. Quite literally, he defeated three top 10 players in a row in the first week of the year at the United Cup. With Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz all under his belt, he then went off and beat Carlos Alcaraz in an exhibition the next week.
This blazing start saw the 25-year-old go on to win his eighth title in Acapulco the next month. Add in a final in Rotterdam as well, plus a top 10 debut, and De Minaur was nigh on unstoppable.
Since then, the Aussie has cooled off somewhat. He was 6-4 on the European clay coming into Paris, with losses against two players outside the top 30. This French Open, he’s been sharp, however. Wins over Alex Michelsen and Jaume Munar have both come in straight sets, seeing De Minaur into the third round for the first time at Roland-Garros.
Still, questions linger over his game on clay. Speed is his main weapon, something that’s significantly mitigated by the surface.
Jan-Lennard Struff: The Ultimate Dark Horse
Up against De Minaur in the third round is Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff. The 34-year-old is the definition of a dark horse, possessing the kind of weapons that can beat anyone on their day.
With a big serve, wicked forehand and tricky net game, Struff has a penchant for pulling off upsets. He’s been known to run hot, with his most famous run coming last year when he made the final of the Madrid Masters as a lucky loser.
Names like Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz, Tommy Paul, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud have all fallen to Struff in recent years. That said, he’s also spent large chunks of his career outside the world’s top 100, competing on the Challenger Tour.
This European clay swing, the veteran has been particularly sharp. He’s 8-3, with those three losses coming at the hands of Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas – not bad players to be losing to on clay.
This week, Struff has looked effortless. The German dropped just six games in the first round, and only seven in the second, despite coming up against No 19 seed Alexander Bublik.
Stats That Matter
Ahead of our De Minaur vs Struff prediction, here are a few stats we considered:
- De Minaur and Struff have met five times, with the Australian leading 3-2
- The pair have only played once on clay, which Struff won last year in Monte-Carlo
- Both times Struff has defeated De Minaur, it’s been one-sided: 6-2, 6-2 and 6-2, 6-4.
- Struff’s first serve win rate has been astronomical this week, sitting at 82 and 88 percent across the first two rounds of the French Open
- Against Bublik, Struff approached the net 42 times, winning 38 points
- Despite winning in straight sets last round, De Minaur made more unforced errors than winners (31 to 25) and only landed 47 percent of first serves
Our De Minaur vs Struff Prediction
Though De Minaur holds the No 11 seed at Roland-Garros, we see Struff as the clear favorite to win this match. He’s got a better game on clay, came to Paris in better form, and has been playing cleaner tennis so far this week.
Based on the pair’s head-to-head, and the way Struff has been making his way through the draw so far, there’s a chance this could even be one-sided. The German is either on, or he’s off. It seems like he’s on this week, and will be a real handful for De Minaur.
Best Bets to Make on De Minaur vs Struff
- Struff to win @ 1.90 | -110
- Total games under 38.5 @ 1.90 | -110
- Struff to win 3-0 @ 5.50 | +450
Let us know your predictions in the comments below!
