French Open Women’s Quarter-Finals Predictions: Big Four Dominance?

by Bren Gray
sabalenka clay

The women’s quarter-finals are upon us at the 2024 French Open. In a rare show of consistency from the WTA Tour, the top five in the world are all still alive at Roland-Garros. Six of the world’s top eight have made the quarter-finals this year, setting up a fascinating two days of action in Paris.

Will the big four of Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff continue their domination of women’s tennis? Or are we in for some surprises in week two of the French Open? Read on for our preview and prediction of the upcoming quarter-finals for the women’s draw.

Coco Gauff vs Ons Jabeur | Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova | Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini | Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva

Coco Gauff (3) vs Ons Jabeur (8)

Kicking off the women’s quarter-final action on Tuesday are Coco Gauf and Ons Jabeur. Bookies have Gauff as a strong favorite, with the following outright betting odds:

  • Coco Gauff @ 1.22 | -450
  • Ons Jabeur @ 4.33 | +333
coco gauff clay
Coco Gauff at Rome Masters earlier this season

Making it this far has been a huge boost to both women’s seasons. 

Gauff hasn’t had a poor 2024 by any stretch of the imagination, but has cooled off over recent months compared to her form in late 2023. The American has been back to her best in Paris, however, racing past all four of her opponents so far and spending less than five hours on court.

For Jabeur, she came to Roland-Garros desperately needing a win. 

The former world No 2 was on the brink of slipping out of the world’s top 10, having largely been out of sorts since Wimbledon last year. Gritty performances over the last 10 days have seen her through to the quarter-finals for the loss of just one set.

This is an excellent match up, with these two splitting their last four meetings 2-2. We give the edge to Gauff simply because of how well the 20-year-old is seeing the ball in Paris, plus the momentum she brings with her. 

Prediction: Gauff in two tight sets.

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Iga Swiatek (1) vs Marketa Vondrousova (5)

Second up in the women’s French Open quarter-finals are Iga Swiatek and Marketa Vondrousova, who also play this Tuesday. Here’s how bookies have the match:

  • Iga Swiatek @ 1.06 | -1600
  • Marketa Vondrousova @ 10.00 | +900

Big picture, Swiatek has been the picture of dominance at Roland-Garros. 

The 22-year-old is a two-time defending champion, and comes into the quarter-finals off the back of a double bagel drubbing of world No 41 Anastasia Potapova. She did show some vulnerabilities earlier last week though, coming within inches of losing to Naomi Osaka when she defended a match point in round two.

For Vondrousova, the Czech sure knows how to make a deep run in Grand Slams. 

She’s only won two titles in her career, one of which was Wimbledon last year. Her season so far in 2024 hasn’t been great–11 wins and eight losses–but she’s made up for that here in Paris. Minus a slow start in the second round, Vondrousova has been perfect this French Open en route to the quarter-finals.

Regardless of Vondrousova’s form the last 10 days, we don’t see her offering much resistance against Swiatek. The Pole has had her one hiccup this tournament, and should race past Vondrousova with little issue on Monday.

Prediction: Swiatek to win in straight sets.

Elena Rybakina (4) vs Jasmine Paolini (12)

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini will contest the third of the women’s quarterfinals, to be played on Wednesday. Here’s how the betting sites are viewing their match.

  • Elena Rybakina @ 1.28 | -350
  • Jasmine Paolini @ 3.75 | +275

Despite the wide gap in odds, this is actually the closest of the four quarter-finals in terms of betting odds. 

While Rybakina is brilliant on her day, she is the one top four player that has the tendency to show some inconsistencies. If she’s to win a Grand Slam she’ll need to iron these out. She’s been good so far in Paris, seeing off back-to-back seeds to make the quarter-finals.

Paolini, on the other hand, is having the year of her life. 

She won a maiden WTA title, cracking a career-high of No 12 as well. This Roland-Garros, she’s avoided any big names so far, defeating four players ranked 70th or less in the rankings. Against two of these, she went the distance as well. 

These two met recently in Stuttgart, with Rybakina prevailing in three sets. We expect it’ll be another good contest, but the Kazakh will win in two this time

Prediction: Rybakina in two sets.

Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs Mirra Andreeva

Rounding out the women’s quarter-finals at the French Open this year are Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva. Bookmakers put this one decidedly in Sabalenka’s favor:

  • Aryna Sabalenka @ 1.25 | -400
  • Mirra Andreeva @ 4.00 | +300

Sabalenka is in red-hot form so far this French Open, and looks to be making a beeline for a rematch in the final against Swiatek. 

The Belarusian came to Paris having made the final of both Madrid and Rome, losing to the world No 1. Here, she’s been consistent as ever, sweeping past all four of her opponents in straight sets. Most recently, she defeated No 22 seed Emma Navarro 6-2, 6-3 to book her spot in the quarter-finals.

For Andreeva, the 17-year-old is having some debut on the WTA Tour. 

She’s only in her second year as a professional, and yet has made the round of 16 twice previously, and is now into her first Grand Slam final. The Russian has undeniable talent with some great shotmaking. Here in Paris, she’s been clinical, taking out No 19 seed Victoria Azarenka in the second round and winning her other matches in straight sets.

We expect this to be the best match of the women’s quarter-finals. Andreeva has something special, is comfortable on the big stage, and plays her best tennis against top ranked opponents. She could well push Sabalenka here, but the No 2 seed will squeak home.

Prediction: Sabalenka in three, just.

Agree with our predictions? Think there will be an upset we haven’t picked? Let us know in the comments!

Don’t forget most bookies also offer live betting on tennis matches during these major tournaments. Make sure you bet responsible.

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