Jakub Mensik vs. Taylor Fritz
March 29, 2025, 00:00 CEST
Head-to-Head: 0-1
Jakub Mensik is on a five-match winning streak. This week in Miami, he caused an upset by defeating Jack Draper in the second round. He advanced to the quarterfinals after Machac retired in their Round of 16 encounter. In his quarterfinal match, Mensik dominated Fils, winning in straight sets without much difficulty.
Taylor Fritz has also won four of his last five matches. He has been impressive in Miami, winning his first three matches in straight sets. In the third round, he breezed past Shapovalov in just over an hour. In the quarterfinals, Fritz defeated Matteo Berrettini in three sets, in a match that lasted nearly three hours. Fritz was a semifinalist at last year’s Miami Open, though he was knocked out early in 2023 by Seyboth Wild in the second round.
Best Bet
While the bookies favor Fritz in this matchup, we think Mensik is being underestimated. Although he had a walkover in the Round of 16, Mensik’s straight-set win in the quarterfinals shows that he is in good form. Fritz, on the other hand, was involved in a grueling three-set battle against Berrettini, which could leave him fatigued. We expect Mensik to be the fresher player and keep this match competitive.
Value Bet: Jakub Mensik +2.5 games handicap @2.00
Novak Djokovic vs. Grigor Dimitrov
March 28, 2025, 20:00 CEST
Head-to-Head: 13-1
Novak Djokovic has been in excellent form recently, securing victories in four of his last five matches. In Miami, he has dominated all of his opponents, winning each match in straight sets. In the Round of 16, he made quick work of Lorenzo Musetti, losing only four games. In the quarterfinals, despite being down 5-2 in the second set against Korda, Djokovic showed his resilience and turned the match around, winning in straight sets.
Grigor Dimitrov has also won four of his last five matches. His toughest test in Miami came in the third round against Khachanov, where he lost the opening set. In the quarterfinals, Dimitrov fought hard to defeat Cerundolo in three sets, surviving a match that lasted nearly three hours. He was down 0-3 in the final set but fought back to save a match point and ultimately secure the win.
Best Bet
Bookmakers have Djokovic as the favorite for this match, and we agree with their assessment. Djokovic is playing at a high level in Miami, aiming for his 100th ATP title. On the other hand, Dimitrov looked visibly fatigued after his quarterfinal match, which could affect his performance here. We expect Djokovic to dominate and claim another straight-set victory.
Value Bet: Novak Djokovic to win 2-0 @1.73
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