Tennis at the Olympics is rapidly heading towards its climax, with the men’s singles semi-finals playing out this Friday in Paris. Second seed Carlos Alcaraz takes on a surprising opponent in Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime, while No 1 seed Novak Djokovic will face Lorenzo Musetti for the third time in two months.
Three of these four will receive medals. Can Djokovic do what he’s failed to do on four previous attempts and come within one match of winning an elusive gold medal? Will Auger-Aliassime or Musetti be able to continue their unexpected runs?
Read on as we give our predictions for the men’s singles semi-finals at the Olympics, with all you need to know about Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime and Djokovic vs Musetti.
Our Olympics Men’s Singles Semi-finals Predictions
Before we dive into our deep analysis, here’s the topline of how we believe the men’s matches will play out on Friday:
- Alcaraz to defeat Auger-Aliassime in straight setsÂ
- Djokovic vs Musetti to be two sets, either way
For those who want to know why, and how to potentially profit from these predictions, then keep reading.
Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime Preview & Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz is up first on Phillipe-Chatrier, taking on Felix Auger-Aliassime for the seventh time in his career. Here’s our preview and prediction of their Olympics semi-final.
Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime Odds
For context, here’s how tennis bookies are viewing Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime:
- Alcaraz to win @ 1.14 | -700
- Auger-Aliassime to win @ 5.50 | +450
Second seed Alcaraz is a clear favorite at the bookmakers, with the Spaniard leading 1.14 (-700) to Auger-Aliassime’s 5.50 (+450) in the outright betting odds. The picture doesn’t get any prettier for the Canadian when we dig into some more specific betting markets, with a 2-0 victory to Alcaraz favored at 1.40 (-250) in set betting and a handicap of -4.5 given to his opponent at 1.73 (-138).
Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime Prediction
It’s hard to see anything other than a straightforward Alcaraz victory in this clash, and here’s why.
Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime have met six times previously on the ATP Tour, sharing the meetings three apiece. However, there’s a worrying trend in their head-to-head. Auger-Aliassime has not beaten Alcaraz in almost two years, with all three of his victories coming in 2021 to 2022.
Since then, Alcaraz has improved significantly. In their three most recent meetings, it hasn’t been a contest. Alcaraz has won all three in straight sets, with their latest clash being a 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 pummeling just two months ago at Roland-Garros.
There’s little reason to expect the result will be any different on Friday.
Admittedly, Auger-Aliassime has brought a high level so far at the Olympics. He raced past Marcos Giron and Maximillian Marterer in his first two matches, before executing back-to-back top 10 wins over Daniil Medvedev (6-3, 7-6(5)) and Casper Ruud (6-4, 6-7(8), 6-3) to make the semi-finals.
However, Alcaraz is another level entirely to Medvedev and Ruud. The 21-year-old is yet to drop a set in Paris, defeating Hady Habib (6-3, 6-1), Tallon Griekspoor (6-1, 7-6(3)), Roman Safiullin (6-4, 6-2) and most recently Tommy Paul (6-3, 7-6(7)). With back-to-back Grand Slam titles, including here at Roland-Garros this year, something would have to go horribly wrong for Alcaraz not to defeat Auger-Aliassime easily this Friday.
Our prediction: Alcaraz to win 2-0
Want to bet on the match? We recommend PariMatch for UK bettors.
Want to bet on the match? We recommend FanDuel or DraftKings for US bettors.
Djokovic vs Musetti Preview & Predictions
Looking at the day’s second semi-final, the clash between Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti is a little more complex.
Djokovic vs Musetti Odds
First, the latest Djokovic vs Musetti odds. Here’s how they are looking ahead of the first ball on Friday:
- Djokovic to win @ 1.40 | -250
- Musetti to win @ 2.90 | +190
Djokovic is favorite in the betting odds heading into this clash, but not by his usual wide margin. The Serbian holds a lead of just 1.40 (-250) to 2.90 (+190)–still decent odds, though far from overwhelming. A straight sets win for the 24-time Grand Slam champion sits as the most likely outcome, returning 2.20 (+120), while Djokovic receives a -3.5 handicap at 1.91 (-110).
Djokovic vs Musetti Prediction
The most important factor in our Djokovic vs Musetti prediction is what the Serbian said after his quarter-final victory on Thursday. He was in noticeable discomfort at the start of the second set against Stefanos Tsitsipas, and explained afterwards what was going on:
“I had a scare early in the second set with the knee, kind of a deja vu from what happened a few months ago at Roland Garros, where I injured myself in a match, managed to finish the match victorious, but only to find out the next day that I tore my meniscus.
“I’m hoping that’s not the case this time. I don’t know. I’m honestly concerned, but I’m going to let the medical team evaluate the knee, do examination.”
In the same breath, Djokovic also made his intentions very clear.
“I think even if [the medical staff] says that it’s not okay, I’ll probably get on the court and give it a try,” he said.
This is huge. In essence, there’s a very strong likelihood we’ll get one of two things on Friday:
- Djokovic playing ultra aggressive to protect his knee from movement and a prolonged match
- A compromised Djokovic that shows up, but is well below his best
In either of these two situations, we see the match ending in two sets.
Djokovic has a brilliant aggressive game, one that he’s been improving over recent years as his base level of physicality is no longer the same as it was a decade ago. He’s able to win effectively by serving bigger, approaching the net more, leaning on the dropshot and going for sharper angles on his groundstrokes.
We predict that’s what will happen in this match. Djokovic has beaten Musetti in six of their seven meetings, including three times this year. He knows the Italian’s game well, and will feel confident he can get the better of him, even if his game plan needs to be adapted. However, to cover all options, we suggest betting on the match to be two sets. That way, if he’s well below par and it’s a simple win for Musetti, the bet still pays.
Our prediction: Two sets, either way. Who do you think will make the gold medal match this weekend? If you’re feeling confident, check out some of our recommended tennis bookmakers and get your bets in on the Olympics men’s singles semi-finals.
