Last Monday, 128 women took to the courts of Wimbledon with hopes of lifting the trophy this weekend. Now, only four remain, with that number being whittled down to two this Thursday as the women’s Wimbledon semi-finals unfold on day 11 in London.
Facing off in the bottom half of the draw are Jasmine Paolini and Donna Vekic, two names few would have picked to make it this far. However, one of them will make their maiden Wimbledon final, taking on either Barbora Krejcikova or Elena Rybakina on Saturday.
Read on as we break down everything there is to know about Paolini vs Vekic ahead of this semi-final clash. We look at each woman’s path to this match, their bookmaker odds, and who has the best chance of winning, before outlining our betting tips.
Paolini vs Vekic Odds
Ahead of our match analysis, here’s a bit of context from some of the top tennis bookmakers. The latest Paolini vs Vekic odds:
- Jasmine Paolini @ 1.53 | -188
- Donna Vekic @ 2.50 | +150
No 7 seed Paolini is the favorite in this match, but bookies have this one quite tight. The Italian leads with odds of 1.53 (-188), compared to Vekic’s 2.50 (+150). The game handicap is slim, putting Paolini at -2.5 with a return of 1.80 (-125) and Vekic at 1.91 (-110) to cover the spread.
Set betting expects Paolini to get through this one in straight sets, with a return of 2.37 (+138) for a 2-0 result. Vekic’s best chance is in two sets as well, with a 2-0 scoreline her way returning 4.00 (+300). Total games are set at 21.5, with the over market returning 1.80 (-125) and the under at 1.91 (-110).
Paolini vs Vekic Preview
Jasmine Paolini
Paolini is quickly becoming a regular at the business end of Grand Slams. This time last month, she was playing in the final of the French Open, after making her maiden run to the championship match in a major. Now, she’s one match away from making consecutive Grand Slam finals.
The Italian wasn’t expected to perform on the grass, given she’d only played five WTA Tour-level matches on the surface ahead of this year. However, a semi-final run in Eastbourne gave her a healthy dose of momentum, which she’s leveraged well to win her first five matches here at Wimbledon.
So far this tournament, Paolini has looked very sharp. Her movement has been smooth, and she’s altered her heavy spinning forehand to get a little more pay on the slick grass of London. To date she’s only dropped one set, moving past Sara Sorribes Tormo (7-5, 6-3), Greet Minnen (7-6(5), 6-2), Bianca Andreescu (7-6(4), 6-1), Madison Keys (6-3, 6-7(6), 5-5) and Emma Navarro (6-2, 6-1).
In particular, Paolini has played excellent tennis to see off Keys and Navarro, two dangerous players in her section of the draw. The Italian won almost half of her receiving points against Keys, while she bettered that by winning 62 percent against Navarro in the quarter-finals.
Donna Vekic
Vekic’s path to the semi-finals hasn’t been quite as seamless as Paolini’s. She’s gone the distance in all but one of her matches so far. In the opening round, she saw off Xiyu Wang (3-6, 6-3, 6-4), before racing past Erika Andreeva 6-2, 6-3 in the second.
Following this, she’s played out three arm wrestles in a row. In the third round, she edged No 28 seed Dayana Yastremska 7-6(4), 6-7(3), 6-1, before outlasting Paula Badosa 6-2, 1-6, 6-4 in the round of 16. Most recently, she overcame Kiwi qualifier Lulu Sun, one of the stories of the tournament, in a tough three setter, winning 5-7, 6-4, 6-1.
Ahead of Wimbledon, Vekic had had a rocky season. She was 17-14 for the year, with her best result being a run to the final of Bad Homburg last month. This got her in fine form for Wimbledon, which she’s made the most of by making this run.
Vekic is a former top 20 player, and currently sits at No 37 in the world. The 28-year-old brings a good chunk of experience to this clash, having previously made two Grand Slam quarter-finals.
Paolini vs Vekic Prediction
It’s tough to see this ending any way other than a straight sets victory for Paolini.
The Italian has faced much tougher opposition in her run to the Wimbledon semi-finals, and yet has won more convincingly in each of her matches. Vekic has spent a lot of time on court for her place in the semi-finals, and we fear her tank might run out.
Throw in the fact that last time these two played–in Montreal 2023–it was a one-sided result to Paolini. Since then, she’s only improved her game, while it’s hard to say the same thing about Vekic.
Paolini also has very recent experience at this level, so nerves and pressure shouldn’t influence the match. We also saw in her French Open semi-final her mental strength, with the 28-year-old turning it on to race past Mirra Andreeva.
Expect Paolini to deal to Vekic convincingly, booking her spot in a second consecutive Grand Slam final on Saturday.
Prediction: Paolini in straight sets.
Let us know in the comments below whether you agree with our prediction here!
