Sinner vs Kotov Prediction: Can Kotov Pull Off the Year’s Biggest Upset?

Round three of Roland-Garros 2024 brings some fascinating matchups with the men’s draw whittled down to just 32 players now. This Friday, second seed Jannik Sinner looks to avoid a potential banana skin in the up-and-coming Pavel Kotov.

Can Kotov pull off the upset of the year in Paris? Or will this year’s race leader continue his fine form in 2024 and book his spot in the round of 16? Read on for our Sinner vs Kotov prediction, where we look at all the latest odds and outline the best bets to make on this clash.

Jannik Sinner: The Man to Beat in 2024

There’s no two ways about it: Sinner is the best tennis player in the world right now. Don’t say that too loudly around Djokovic or Alcaraz fans, but the facts are there.

So far in 2024, Sinner is 30-2. He’s lifted three trophies, including the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne. Throw in titles in Rotterdam and Miami, and the Italian has been red-hot.

It’s not just the number of victories Sinner has been accruing that’s impressive, it’s who he’s been beating. The 22-year-old has racked up wins over Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev (twice), Andrey Rublev, Alex de Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov and Holger Rune already this year.

Coming into Roland-Garros, there was concern over a potential hip issue for Sinner. Rumors circulated that he wouldn’t be able to compete in Paris after he missed the Rome Masters 1000. However, these concerns have been well and truly allayed this week.

Sinner has been nothing but clinical across the opening two rounds of the French Open. He’s put away two tricky opponents in the big-serving Chris Eubanks and fan-favorite Richard Gasquet, failing to drop a set across either match.

Pavel Kotov: Nothing to Lose & Playing His Best Tennis

Standing across the net from Sinner on Friday will be Russian Pavel Kotov. Three years Sinner’s senior, Kotov is still very much a newbie at the Grand Slam level.

The 25-year-old had played only six main draw matches in Grand Slams ahead of Roland-Garros, picking up just one win. He’s doubled that already this week, seeing off two big names across his opening two matches.

First it was No 32 seed Cam Norrie. Kotov edged out the Brit in an epic five-setter that went more than four hours. He backed the performance up with an impressive four set win over three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka on Wednesday, narrowly avoiding a fifth set there as well.

These wins are the product of Kotov’s excellent tennis the last 12 months. The Russian sits at a career-high of No 56 in the world and is 12-11 this season. He came to Paris fresh off a quarter-final run in Lyon, having also made the semi-finals of Marrakech and picked up a few wins in Madrid and Rome.

With wins over three top 30 players in his career, can Kotov up his game and grab a maiden top five victory?

Stats That Matter

As we weigh up our Sinner vs Kotov prediction, here are a few stats that matter:

Sinner and Kotov played last month, with the Italian prevailing 6-2, 7-5
Kotov has spent seven hours and 51 minutes on court so far this week, while Sinner has played for just four hours and 14 minutes
The last time Sinner lost to a player outside the top 20 was August 2023
It’s been tough to defeat Kotov this season, with the Russian winning a set in three of his last four losses
Of the 17 Grand Slams Sinner has played, he’s only ever made it to the round of 16 without dropping a set twice
Kotov has been clutch under pressure this Roland-Garros, winning all three tiebreaks he’s played

Our Sinner vs Kotov Prediction

Even Sinner is human, and if ever there’s a time when he’s susceptible to a slight wobble, it’s this stage of a tournament. We don’t believe the outcome of this match is in question for a minute, however our Sinner vs Kotov prediction is there will be a slight hiccup in round three.

Given that Kotov pushed Sinner to 7-5 in their last meeting, and the Russian is playing the best tennis of his life, it’s entirely realistic for him to win a set here. However, Kotov has spent so much time on court, and Sinner’s game is so elite, that the No 2 seed should quickly recover and finish this one off.