Sinner vs Medvedev, Prediction and Odds, Wimbledon Quarter-Finals

by Bren Gray
Jannik Sinner

It’s quarter-final time at Wimbledon, with Jannik Sinner taking on Daniil Medvedev in what will be an intriguing encounter on Tuesday. 

The pair have met 11 times, with their head-to-head sitting at 6-5 in favor of Medvedev. Thing is, Sinner has won the last five in a row, including earlier this year in the final of the Australian Open where Medvedev had a two set to love lead.

Can Medvedev do what he fell just short of in Melbourne, and upset Sinner at Wimbledon? Or will the Italian continue his collision course with Carlos Alcaraz for the second Grand Slam in a row?

Sinner vs Medvedev Odds

First of all, what do the bookies say about this clash? Here are the latest odds for Sinner v Medvedev:

  • Jannik Sinner @ 1.25 | -df
  • Daniil Medvedev @ 4.00 | +300

Bookmakers are firmly in favor of Sinner here, with the top seed paying just 1.25 (-400) to win this quarter-final. Medvedev is a pretty significant underdog, paying 4.00 (+300) to cause an upset. 

Set betting has Sinner winning 3-0 at 2.50 (+150), though a 3-1 scoreline to the Italian is not unrealistic either, paying 3.40 (+240). Sinner is given a handicap of -5.5 games at 2.00 (+100), while Medvedve returns 1.73 (-138) to cover the spread.

Sinner vs Medvedev Preview

Jannik Sinner

If you’ve tuned into the ATP Tour at all over the past 10 months, you’ll know that Sinner has been in blistering form.

The 22-year-old recently ascended to the pinnacle of the sport’s rankings, ousting 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic from the world No 1 spot. He’s won an incredible 42 matches already this year, and only lost three times. Titles have come thick and fast, with trophies in Melbourne, Rotterdam, Miami and Halle across the first half of the season.

Here in London, Sinner has been solid in his progression to the quarter-finals. He hasn’t necessarily won any awards for flashy tennis, but as the old saying goes, you can’t win a Grand Slam in the first week, but you can lose it. Sinner has ensured he gets the opportunity to play second-week tennis at Wimbledon, and will be looking to up his level over his coming matches, starting with Medvedev.

His victories so far have been over Yannick Hanfman (four sets), Matteo Berrettini (four sets), Miomir Kecmanovic (three sets) and Ben Shelton (three sets).

Medvedev canadian open
Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev’s time in London has been broadly similar to Sinner’s. He’s made it through to the quarter-finals without any major dramas, but equally without looking overly impressive. Wins have come for the Russian over Aleksandr Kovakevic (three sets), Alexandre Muller (four sets), Jan-Lennard Struff (four sets) and Grigor Dimitrov (first set retirement).

Ahead of arriving at Wimbledon, Medvedev has been riding a title drought dating back to May 2023 when he won the Rome Masters 1000. However, it’s not like he’s been in poor form. The former No 1 is still fifth in the rankings, and has made finals in Melbourne and Indian Wells.

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Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction

The bizarre head-to-head between these two makes this match fascinating.

When they met in Melbourne, Medvedev radically altered his play style to try stem the bleeding from his side in the pair’s rivalry. The 28-year-old rushed the net far more, played ultra aggressive, and took on Sinner’s serve. It very nearly worked as well, with Sinner having to claw his way out of a two set hole to win.

We don’t necessarily think Medvedev will take the exact same approach this time, but expect him to have a few tricks up his sleeve. The retirement of Dimitrov after just eight games in their round-of-16 clash is a huge boost for the Russian. It not only gives him time to replenish his tank physically, but also ample room to strategize about how he’ll take down the world No 1.

Ultimately, it’s hard to see Sinner losing in this match. However, we are backing Medvedev in our prediction, to once again give him a proper scare, pushing this one all the way.

Prediction: Sinner to win in five.

Think Medvedev can pull off the upset? Let us know in the comments below!

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