Wimbledon is well and truly beginning to heat up, as the year’s third Grand Slam heads towards its second week in London. Sunday sees the men’s fourth round begin, and big names square off for their spot in the Wimbledon quarter-finals.
Two of those clashing on day seven are world No 1 Jannik Sinner and 14th seed Ben Shelton. Both are exciting young talents, with Shelton having a proclivity for raising his level on the big stage, and Sinner playing the best tennis out of anyone on the ATP Tour this year.
Who will book their spot in the final eight at SW19 this Sunday? Read on for our analysis of Sinner vs Shelton, as we look at the latest bookmaker odds and break down each player’s path to victory.
Sinner vs Shelton Odds
Here’s what the bookies are saying about Sinner vs Shelton heading into their third-round clash at Wimbledon:
- Jannik Sinner @ 1.05 | -2000
- Ben Shelton @ 10.00 | +900
Tennis bookmakers put Sinner as an enormous favorite against Shelton. So much so that the Italian only pays 1.05 (-2000) to win–the kinds of odds that are usually seen in the first round of a Grand Slam, not the fourth. Shelton is at an equally long 10.00 (+900) to cause an upset.
Sinner’s handicap sits at -6.5 games, returning 2.10 (+110), while Shelton is at 1.67 (-150) for the same. Set betting says this will be done and dusted within three sets, with Sinner 3-0 paying just 1.61 (-163).
Sinner vs Shelton Preview
Jannik Sinner
It’s been almost the perfect year for Sinner over the first six months of 2024.
The Italian began by winning his maiden Grand Slam in Melbourne. He then backed that up with a title in Rotterdam, winning his first 16 matches in a row before Carlos Alcaraz finally defeated him in the semi-finals of Indian Wells. The next week, he went on to win Miami, however, racing to his second Masters 1000 crown.
Clay was then a little dicey for the 22-year-old, with a hip injury hampering him. He still went 11-3 across the swing, however, making semi-finals in Monte-Carlo and Paris. On grass, Sinner found his form, winning a debut title on the surface in Halle.
So far at Wimbledon, he’s been in fine form. The world No 1 has had a tough draw, seeing off German Yannick Hanfmann in four sets to open his campaign before facing former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini in the second round. He saw off his compatriot in four sets as well, before racing past Miomir Kecmanovic most recently to make the round of 16.
Ben Shelton
Shelton has had a challenging year so far. It hasn’t been poor by any stretch of the imagination, with the American sitting on a win-loss record of 23-14 and one title for the season already.
However, given the ceiling that Shelton has, he’ll be disappointed to have not kicked on and made any big splashes so far in 2024. Outside of his title in Houston, his biggest results have been a pair of ATP 250 semi-finals in Auckland and Dallas.
Both Grand Slams he’s exited in the third round, and across the four Masters 1000s played so far this year, he’s not made it further than the round of 16. Ahead of Wimbledon, Shelton’s grass preparation was poor, with just the one win from three tournaments.
However, here in London, the American is finding his feet on the surface. He’s won his first three matches, all of them in five sets. While this could be viewed as a bad thing–the 21-year-old must be fatigued, surely–there’s also a silver lining. Shelton was in desperate need of reps on grass, and with 15 sets played already, that box has been ticked.
Sinner vs Shelton Prediction
Shelton is one of four players to defeat Sinner since the US Open last year, and one of only six men to do so in all of the last 12 months. Do we think he’ll do so again on Sunday?
We don’t think so. Five of Shelton’s last six losses to top 10 players have been in straight sets. While he does play his best under the bright lights, he’s also just played three five set matches in a row.
Sinner raised his level against Kecmanovic last round, and will be in no mood to be drawn into a long match against Shelton. He’s one of the few elite returners in the game that can unpack Shelton’s serve and give him trouble on return.
While we’d love to predict that this will be a blockbusting five-setter between two exciting young stars, we simply can’t quite justify it. Instead, expect a clinical Sinner to end Shelton’s Wimbledon in straight sets.
Prediction: Sinner in three.
Think we’ve got this one right? Let us know in the comments below!
