It all comes down to this. 128 women began the French Open 13 days ago, eager to lift the silverware in Paris. Now just two remain–Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini – with one getting crowned champion on Saturday.
Will it be two-time defending champion Swiatek? The Pole is on a 20-match winning streak at Roland-Garros, and is the heavy favorite to prevail. Or can underdog Jasmine Paolini cause a huge upset in her first ever Grand Slam final? She’ll be playing with nothing to lose and plenty of momentum.
Read on for our detailed Swiatek vs Paolini prediction. We break down all the relevant bookmaker odds, look at the pair’s head-to-head, their journeys so far, and what each has said about the upcoming women’s French Open final.
Swiatek vs Paolini Odds
The odds always give a reasonable idea of how a match is shaping up ahead of time. Here’s what tennis bookies are paying for the women’s French Open final:
- Iga Swiatek @ 1.06 | -1600
- Jasmine Paolini @ 10.00 | +900
You’d be forgiven for thinking this was a first-round match, given how skewed these odds are looking. Swiatek is a heavy, heavy favorite to claim her fourth Roland-Garros title in five years, paying just 1.06 (-1600) to win. Paolini is a serious underdog with odds of 10.00 (+900) to upset the top seed.
Looking at some of the other Swiatek vs Paolini odds, bookmakers are setting the handicap for this clash at 6.5. Swiatek winning by seven or more games returns 1.80 (-125), while Paolini keeping it to within seven pays 1.90 (-110).
Set betting favors Swiatek in straight sets at 1.28 (-350), while the over/under games has been set at 17.5. This returns 1.72 (-138) and 2.00 (+100) respectively.
Head-to-Head – Swiatek 2, Paolini 0
Swiatek and Paolini have played twice before on the WTA Tour, but not for some time.
Their most recent meeting was in 2022 at the US Open, which Swiatek won 6-3, 6-0. Prior to that, they hadn’t met since 2018 in Prague, where Swiatek also just dropped the three games, winning 6-2, 6-1.
This will be the pair’s first meeting on clay.
Swiatek vs Paolini Prediction
Try as you might, it’s hard to find any logical argument against the top seed winning here.
Swiatek is simply far too dominant. Besides her speedbump in round two against Naomi Osaka (a four-time Grand Slam winner and former world No 1), Swiatek has been absolutely untouchable on the Parisian clay.Â
The Pole has dropped just 17 games across her five other matches, is on a 18-match winning streak on clay in 2024, and a 20-match winning streak at Roland-Garros over the past three years. Swiatek has also dominated the head-to-head against Paolini, losing just six games and winning 24 across their two meetings.
Add in the fact that this is Paolini’s best Grand Slam performance by a country mile, and this match up gets even uglier.
Prior to this year, the Italian had never made it beyond the second round of a major. She made a round of 16 run in Melbourne this year, but still, the nerves of a maiden Grand Slam final aren’t to be underestimated. Particularly when it’s the world No 1 on the other side of the net.
All this to say, we anticipate this final being a tough, albeit brief, watch.
Brave bettors seeking a return could bet the over market for total games or take Paolini’s handicap. However, we’d suggest getting behind Swiatek to win comfortably, and settle for the modest returns on offer.
Prediction: Swiatek to win 2-0.
What They’ve Said
Jasmine Paolini: “Iga is an unbelievable player. So young, but has so many achievements and Grand Slams. Here she won three times. She’s doing well week by week, and that’s not easy. I have huge respect for her.
“My goal is to step on court Saturday and try to enjoy the match. To enjoy that moment and to try to play a good match and to make a good performance on court.”
Iga Swiatek: “We played a long time ago, so I need to prepare tactically and see what her game is at now. She has had the best season [of her career so far], so she must have changed something.
“Honestly, I haven’t watched her matches, so there’s not a lot for me to say. I’ll just focus on myself and prepare tactically and try to be consistent with my tactic.”
Path to the Final
Iga Swiatek
As touched on above, Swiatek’s Roland-Garros has largely been a picture of dominance. Here’s how her path to the final has unfolded:
- R1 – Defeated Leolia Jeanjean 6-1, 6-2
- R2 – Defeated Naomi Osaka 7-6(1), 1-6, 7-5
- R3 – Defeated Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2Â
- Round of 16 – Defeated Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0
- Quarter-final – Defeated Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2
- Semi-final – Defeated Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-4
Besides her second round clash against Osaka, where Swiatek saved a match point, the Pole has been untroubled at the French Open. All of her matches have been won in straight sets, with no-one taking more than six games from her.
Jasmine Paolini
For Paolini, she’s had to work a little harder to get to her maiden Grand Slam final. Here’s how her tournament has gone so far:
- R1 – Defeated Daria Saville 6-3, 6-4
- R2 – Defeated Hayley Baptiste 6-4, 7-6(6)
- R3 – Defeated Bianca Andreescu 6-1, 3-6, 6-0
- Round of 16 – Defeated Elina Avanesyan 4-6, 6-0, 6-1
- Quarter-final – Defeated Elena Rybakina 6-2, 4-6, 6-4
- Semi-final – Defeated Mirra Andreeva 6-3, 6-1
After two routine victories in the first and second rounds, Paolini then played three consecutive three setters to make the semi-finals. Along the way, she impressively knocked out No 4 seed Elena Rybakina in the quarter-finals.
Perhaps her most impressive performance, however, she saved for her most recent match against Mirra Andreeva. An underdog heading into the clash, Paolini won in dominant fashion, dropping just four games to make the final.
