World No. 2 Alexander Zverev heads into the 2025 French Open as one of the top contenders to finally claim his first Grand Slam title. The 27-year-old German has been knocking on the door – reaching three major finals, including Roland Garros 2024 – and his strong record on clay-courts makes Paris another good chance for him.
With some strong performances this year and odds around 8.50 (+750 or 15/2) to win the Roland Garros, we’re all wondering if this is Zverev’s year to finally break that spell.
Recent Form
Zverev’s 2025 season has been quite impressive, currently with a 19-7 record and a title at the Munich ATP 500 in April, where he defeated a strong Ben Shelton 6-3, 6-4. He’s currently on a decent win streak, carrying momentum into Madrid, where he’s the top seed. His clay form is particularly strong: he won the Rome Masters in 2024 and has a 16-3 clay record this year. Despite a straight set loss to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final in January, Zverev showed once again he can compete at the highest level.
His Madrid performance included a controversial moment when he photographed a ball mark to dispute a Hawk-Eye call, earning an unsportsmanlike conduct warning but not derailing his focus. Zverev’s focus and consistency, winning 74.6% of service games on clay, bodes well for the tough best-of-five-set format in Paris.
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Grand Slam History: So Close, Yet So Far
Zverev’s Grand Slam record is a mix of promise and heartbreak. He’s 0-3 in finals:
- 2020 US Open: Led Dominic Thiem by two sets but fell 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(6), two points from victory.
- 2024 French Open: Took a two-sets-to-one lead over Carlos Alcaraz but lost 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2, where he eventually looked fatigue vs Carlitos.
- 2025 Australian Open: Lost to Sinner 6-3, 7-6(4), 3-6, struggling at the net.
His French Open record is great though, with a 34-8 win-loss mark (81% win rate). He reached the semifinals from 2021 to 2023 and the final in 2024. A 2022 semifinal run ended abruptly when he retired against Rafael Nadal due to a severe ankle injury. Zverev’s clay consistency—three straight French Open semifinals or better—shows he enjoys the courts at Roland Garros, where the slow clay suits his big serve and baseline power.
Winning a Grand Slam is still what’s missing for Zverev, as was confirmed recently in an interview where he got the question “What is the biggest thing you’ve been chasing?”:
“Win a Grand Slam. That’s the most obvious answer for me right now.“
French Open 2025 Odds and Competition
Zverev’s odds to win the Roland Garros are +750 giving him an 11.76% implied probability, behind Carlos Alcaraz (+125), Sinner and Djokovic. Zverev’s odds are looking “juicy” and slightly undervalued, given his 2024 final, his Rome title and recent form, though his inability to close out Grand Slams keeps bettors cautious. Alcaraz, the defending champion, leads with an 81-18 clay record, but his recent withdrawal from Madrid due to injury raises questions about his fitness and his levels are not always consistent. Sinner, despite a fantastic recent period, faces rust after a three-month doping ban, returning only at Rome Masters.
Djokovic, a three-time French Open winner, is a threat but has struggled this year with both injuries and early exits. Casper Ruud (+1200), a two-time finalist, and João Fonseca (+4000), a young clay specialist, are long shots. Zverev’s 6-5 head-to-head edge over Alcaraz and 2-0 record against Sinner at the US Open give him confidence, but he’s 0-3 against Djokovic in Grand Slam quarterfinals or later.
Zverev is surely a strong pick, seeing such high levels in all his clay performances and his ability to find a way to win (apart from the Slam finals…). We would argue there is better value in the odds of Zverev compared to a struggling Djokovic on similar betting odds.
The major caution is of course that of Zverev’s history of faltering in big moments in Grand Slams – losing after leading in two of his three finals. The consensus is that Zverev’s clay game and recent form make him a top threat, but mental toughness will probably decide his fate along with the performance of top rivals Sinner and Alcaraz.
The French Open will honour retired legend Rafael Nadal at the 2025 event, which is only fitting given that the Spanish star managed to win the competition an amazing 14 times before he hung up his racket last November.
Chances at Roland Garros?
Zverev’s as close as he’s ever been to a Grand Slam. His serve and backhand are firing, and Madrid’s high-altitude clay, similar to Paris, plays to his strengths. Alcaraz’s injury and Sinner’s layoff open the door, but Zverev’s got to shake his finals curse. I’d back him to reach the final again, and if he faces anyone but a fully fit Alcaraz, he’s got a real shot at the title. A semifinal exit feels like the floor, but this could be his moment.
Zverev’s path to Roland Garros includes Madrid and Rome, where he’s defending 200 and 1000 points, respectively. A deep run in either could lock in a top-4 seed, keeping him away from Alcaraz or Sinner until the semifinals.
