The US Open draw is out, and the last of four Grand Slams is already kicked off with the qualifications. Time for us to see who has been lucky and who might be on the bad end of the men’s draw. With the defending champion Novak Djokovic coming back from his post Olympics break, he will face off against the two new stars, Alcaraz and Sinner. The latter has just been at the focal point of controversy, so all favorites will have their fair bit of pressure coming into this.
The first quarter – tough business for Sinner
If you haven’t heard of Jannik Sinner’s positive doping tests, you most probably have been living underneath a rock for a few days. The Italian has been officially cleared of any wrongdoing, but still, he will have a bit of weight on his shoulders coming in. And he is hitting a draw, which isn’t really playing in his favor. Starting out against the strong young Americans McDonald and possibly Michelsen, he could face Nicolas Jarry in Round 3. His draw until quarters further has Daniil Medvedev, Tommy Paul, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Arthur Fils and Flavio Cobolli in it. Sure, this is a Grand Slam, but the draw is anything but easy for Sinner here.
World No. 5 Daniil Medvedev faces the same challenge in this part of the draw, where he will have Lajovic and possibly Maroszan first, who are both known for surprises against big players. He would then face Cobolli in projections, followed by Tsitsipas or Auger-Aliassime, all before running into Sinner in quarters. This is one of the stronger quarters I have seen in recent Slam history, but if all things play out as expected, we should be in for a Sinner – Medvedev quarterfinal.
The second quarter – Alcaraz against the World
As if that wasn’t tough enough, the top half of the draw also has World No. 3 and this year’s double Slam champion Alcaraz in it. He shares his quarter with Hubert Hurkacz, Alex DeMinaur, Sebastian Korda and Karen Khachanov. Starting with a matchup against a qualifier, Alcaraz might have Shapovalov next, before facing off against Draper, who beat him in Queens. He could be up against Korda next and then possibly face Hurkacz for an exciting quarterfinal. This draw is not a walk in the park, but in my eyes significantly easier than the Sinner part.
Hubert Hurkacz on the other side of this quarter might still be injured, but remember that the US Open courts are fast and he arguably is the best server on tour right now. His early rounds against a qualifier, Jordan Thompson and possibly Matteo Arnaldi look like a nice ramp-up. Depending on the health of Alex DeMinaur, the fourth round against him or Karen Khachanov will present the first serious test of health and form for Hurkacz. If he can play to anywhere near his level, the Polish World No. 7 should get to the desired Alcaraz quarterfinal, where his aggressive serving will surely give him chances.
The third quarter – the most open?
Just a couple of days ago, I said in another article that the draws might open up for surprises, now that the firm grip of the big three seems to loosen. Maybe this applies the most for the third quarter, where Alexander Zverev is the highest seeded player in the draw. He is joined by Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune, Lorenzo Musetti and Ugo Humbert amongst others.
Zverev’s first rounds look a bit harder than for others, facing Ruusuvuori, Walton and Cerundolo. He would be up against Rune or Musetti than, before facing off the Ruud/Fritz part of his quarter. If we see the Cincinnati version of Zverev, he still is the top favorite for this draw, although his finishing abilities always leave room for opponents in a best-of-five setting.
Casper Ruud comes into this tournament after a sub-par Grand Slam season for him so far, with the only highlight being his semi-final at the French Open really. Granted, he won two tournaments on clay and reached another three finals, but especially on hard-court, he wasn’t as successful. His 2024 US Open will kick-off against a qualifier and then he will most likely face an in-shape Gael Monfils.
Sascha, Bublik and potentially Taylor Fritz or Ugo Humbert seem like a tough path towards another meeting with Alexander Zverev. But let’s not forget that Ruud is a former US Open finalist, has won multiple hard-court titles and surely will come prepared. Given his recent form though, I would expect a Fritz – Zverev matchup in quarters, which would be an interesting one after Wimbledon.
The fourth quarter – return of the King
He is back. After missing two Masters tournaments by choice and celebrating his Career Golden Slam with the entire country of Serbia, Novak Djokovic will continue his quest for Slam No. 25 at the US Open event. In his quarter, he will find Andrey Rublev, Grigor Dimitrov, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Alexei Popyrin and Jiri Lehecka. This might not sound as strong as the Sinner draw, but there are a lot of players in their prime shape right now ad Djokovic hasn’t played competitive tennis in a month. So, it will be interesting how his opening match against a qualifier, the potential second round against Struff or the subsequent matchup against Popyrin will go. His further matches might be Shelton or Tiafoe and then Dimitrov, Lehecka or Rublev.
The other matchups in this quarter are just as interesting, with a potential third round between Americans Shelton and Tiafoe, who both are in great shape. Jiri Lehecka will challenge Andrey Rublev in his comeback, if he can get through Fucsovics, and Grigor Dimitrov wants to battle back from recent results against Davidovich Fokina and Baez. All-in-all, this quarter is Djokovic’s to lose, but he has a lot of competition from interesting players and I would expect him to face Jiri Lehecka in an enticing quarterfinal.
On a side note, Dominic Thiem will be in this quarter as a wild card for his last ever Grand Slam, facing Ben Shelton. While his chances might be minimal, it will be great to see Domi once more on the big stage, possible even on Ashe given the matchup.
Who do you think got the best draw and who are your early favorites?
