There is one name on the lips of every tennis fan after the action that has unfolded in June and July of 2024: Carlos Alcaraz. The 21-year-old Spaniard became the youngest-ever player to complete the ‘Channel Slam’, winning both the French Open and Wimbledon in the space of less than two months.
With Alcaraz adding slams number three and four to his resume, the big question is, can he reclaim his throne at the top of the world rankings now?
Alcaraz became world No 1 as a 19-year-old almost two years ago. Since then, he’s wrestled with both Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner for the sport’s top spot. It’s been just under a year since Alcaraz was last ranked No 1, with Djokovic taking the crown from him in August and holding it until Sinner won it off him in June 2024.
Now, with back-to-back Grand Slams under his belt, Alcaraz is poised to make a strong run at the top spot–and the year-end No 1–over the coming four months. Here’s what his path looks like.
Alcaraz’s path back to world No 1
Right now, Alcaraz is ranked No 3 in the world. Here’s how the world’s top five looks:
- Jannik Sinner – 9570 points
- Novak Djokovic – 8460 points
- Carlos Alcaraz – 8130 points
- Alexander Zverev – 7295 points
- Daniil Medvedev – 6,525 points
The Spaniard is nipping at Djokovic’s heels, but a gap of 1440 points sits between Alcaraz and Sinner in the top spot. However, over the coming months, there will be windows of opportunity for Alcaraz to make up ground on both Sinner and Djokovic. The first comes in the next month before the US Open.
| Points dropping pre-US Open | |||||
| Alcaraz | Sinner | Djokovic | Zverev | Medvedev | |
| Montreal | 180 | 1000 | 0 | NC | 180 |
| Cincinnati | 600 | 10 | 1000 | 360 | 90 |
| Total | 780 | 1010 | 1000 | 360 | 270 |
Looking at the table above, Alcaraz is defending the least amount of points out of the top three men in the rankings. This gives him a 230 point head start on Sinner, and a 220 point advantage over Djokovic heading into the twin Masters 1000 events in Montreal and Cincinnati.
However, the likelihood of Alcaraz chasing down the No 1 ranking before the US Open is still slim.
Even if he wins both Masters, he’d need Sinner and Djokovic to gain less than 790 and 780 points respectively across the two events. This would mean each losing before the semi-finals in at least one, and not making the final or winning in the other; or, losing first-round then not winning the other.
| Points dropping at US Open | |||||
| Alcaraz | Sinner | Djokovic | Zverev | Medvedev | |
| US Open | 720 | 180 | 2000 | 360 | 1200 |
At the US Open, Alcaraz is defending semi-finalist points. This gives him an edge over Djokovic, who won in 2023, while Sinner lost in the round of 16 and only has 180 points dropping.
However, post-US Open is where the big opportunity lies for Alcaraz to make up ground on both of his key rivals.
| Points dropping after US Open | |||||
| Alcaraz | Sinner | Djokovic | Zverev | Medvedev | |
| Chengdu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 0 |
| Beijing | 180 | 500 | 0 | 180 | 300 |
| Shanghai | 90 | 90 | 0 | NC | 45 |
| Vienna | 0 | 500 | 0 | 90 | 300 |
| Paris | 10 | 90 | 1000 | 90 | 10 |
| Turin | 400 | 1000 | 1300 | 400 | 400 |
| Total | 680 | 2180 | 2300 | 1010 | 1055 |
Alcaraz had a quiet end to the season in 2023, going titleless from Wimbledon to Indian Wells earlier this year. That means the Spaniard only has 680 points to defend after the US Open until the end of the year.
Sinner and Djokovic, on the other hand, have big numbers. The Italian won Beijing and Vienna, plus made the final of Turin, giving him 2180 points to defend. Djokovic played just the two events but won them both, giving him 2300 points to defend in Paris and Turin.
Should Alcaraz continue his current form, he’ll be well placed to overhaul the world No 1 position post-US Open. There’s an outside chance that his adversaries stumble and the top spot comes to him earlier. However, come September, October and November, the outcome is squarely in the 21-year-old’s hands.
Also: Djokovic in danger, opportunity for Zverev
As an aside, anyone looking at the points dropping over the second half of this season will notice two other glaring realities.
First, Djokovic is in real danger of letting his ranking slide if he doesn’t return to winning ways soon. The Serbian has 5300 points to defend over the next four months. Subtract that amount from his current tally, and he’s sitting at No 14 in the world, assuming no other players make gains.
Second, Zverev is sitting pretty heading into the final leg of the season. The German has just 1730 points to defend between now and the end of the year. Given that he’s already accrued 5115 in the first seven months of 2024 and is sitting third in the Race to Turin behind Sinner and Alcaraz, expect big movements for the former No 2 if his current trajectory continues.
Do you think Alcaraz will reclaim the world No 1 spot? If so, when? Let us know in the comments below.
