The third ATP Masters 1000 tournament of the year kicks off this Sunday in Monte-Carlo, with 56 of the world’s best men’s tennis players fighting it out on European clay for the first time this season.
It’s always a very interesting event, featuring a healthy dose of surprises given the quick shift from American hardcourts. What can we expect in 2025? Let’s take a quarter-by-quarter look at how the Monte-Carlo Masters might unfold.
ATP Monte Carlo Masters draw
The Monte-Carlo Masters unfolds over six rounds, with the top eight seeds getting byes straight into the second round. Here’s is our draw analysis.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (1)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (6)
- Holger Rune (10)
- Lorenzo Musetti (13)
Matches to watch
- Holger Rune vs Nuno Borges (first round)
- Jiri Lehecka vs Sebastian Korda (first round)
The top seed at this event is Alexander Zverev, and he has a first-round bye. However, he will play in the second round, facing either a qualifier or Matteo Berrettini. All tennis fans are hoping for the latter option, as it would be a massive second-round match—possibly the best in the whole draw. Read more on Zverev’s current racquet.
Outside of Zverev, this quarter features a couple of other notable players. Three-time champion Stefanos Tsitsipas is a potential quarter-final matchup for Zverev, and they’ve already faced each other here before, with Tsitsipas generally proving to be the better player.
Players like Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti are also dangerous contenders, as both are excellent clay players and have troubled both Zverev and Tsitsipas in the past. They could very well do so again. Both have tough points to prove, so overall, this quarter could be really intriguing.
Our prediction: Zverev beats Rune
Quarter two
Seeds
- Novak Djokovic (3)
- Alex de Minaur (8)
- Daniil Medvedev (9)
- Grigor Dimitrov (15)
Matches to watch
- Daniil Medvedev vs Karen Khachanov (first round)
- Tomas Machac vs Sebastian Baez (first round)
Novak Djokovic is the top player in this quarter simply because he’s the best. He should be able to come out on top here because Alex de Minaur isn’t really a threat, especially not on clay, as he generally lacks weapons – and on clay, that’s even more apparent.
Medvedev doesn’t like clay and is very unlikely to make it past Khachanov, who has been really solid both here and on clay in general. There are some other players, like Dimitrov, who could possibly create some havoc, but overall, nobody here is beating Djokovic in a clay match. That’s why he’s expected to be the winner of his quarter, even if he does have a patchy record in Monaco.
Our prediction: Djokovic beats Machac
Quarter three
Seeds
- Casper Ruud (4)
- Jack Draper (5)
- Ben Shelton (11)
- Frances Tiafoe (14)
Matches to watch
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ben Shelton (first round)
- Alexei Popyrin vs Ugo Humbert (first round)
This quarter is the one where things are the most open overall. We have Casper Ruud, who at times has played some really solid tennis here, but he’s also underperformed in the past as well. It really depends, and it’s never quite certain what he might produce here. More on Ruud and his racquet.
Jack Draper is the wild card because this is a court where he can play well. His power and attacking style can do some damage here, and he has truly ascended to being a fantastic player—though he’s yet to prove himself on clay.
None of the other players instill much confidence that they can make a significant impact here, as none of them are particularly good on clay. Davidovich Fokina has made a final here and at times looked decent, but he hasn’t been in very good form lately.
Our prediction: Draper beats Ruud
Quarter four
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (2)
- Andrey Rublev (7)
- Arthur Fils (12)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (17)
Matches to watch
- Andrey Rublev vs Gael Monfils (second round)
- Fabio Fognini vs Francisco Cerundolo (first round)
This one features the likely favorite to win the event, Carlos Alcaraz, though he hasn’t really done well at this event in the past. The Spaniard hasn’t played here many times, so it’s not fair to judge him based on that.
This year might be the first time we truly see what he can do, and his quarter isn’t the toughest either. There are some decent players in it, but none should give Alcaraz too much trouble, as they aren’t exactly world-beaters when it comes to playing on clay.
In fact, Gaël Monfils might be the biggest issue for Alcaraz here because the Frenchman could perform very well with the crowd backing him, and his improved form lately has been notable. His speed is also a big asset on clay.
Our prediction: Alcaraz beats Monfils
Final weekend predictions for Monte-Carlo Masters
- Semi – Zverev beats Djokovic
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Draper
- Final – Alcaraz beats Zverev
After struggling to make an impact at this event in the past, largely due to not playing, we expect Carlos Alcaraz to finally show that he is still one of the most dominant players on clay. Essentially, with Jannik Sinner still being away from the sport, there’s no reason for Alcaraz to not take over the Tour.
He has all the tools to play well on clay, and with Zverev likely taking care of Djokovic in the semifinal before facing him, there is a chance that Alcaraz will have no trouble winning the event. In fact, the only player that consistently beats him from the predicted top four is Djokovic.
Djokovic has consistently given him problems, whereas Zverev hasn’t been a massive challenge for him. Draper shouldn’t be a huge problem for him either, especially on clay, where Alcaraz has been the more dominant player for most of his career.
Draper did beat him at Indian Wells, so there might be a chance for some revenge here as well. Overall, this does seem like an event Alcaraz should win—and if he doesn’t, that would be quite a big surprise.
More on the Monte Carlo event:
