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ATP FINALS 2023, Alcaraz vs Medvedev Prediction

by Jonas Eriksson

This is the last day of group-stage play at the ATP Finals 2023. Before we head into the Alcaraz vs Medvedev prediction, let’s look at yesterday.

Djokovic gets it done against Hurkacz

Novak Djokovic needed to win to have a chance to qualify for the semi-finals. Hubert Hurkacz, on the other hand, came in as an alternate after Tsitsipas pulled out and had nothing to play for. He still managed to steal a set from Djokovic in a 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1 match in the favor of the world number one.

Hurkacz is one of those players that when he plays well dominates his opponent using his first serve. That is how he won the second set. But in the end, his forehand is a bit of a liability and if there is one thing Djokovic knows, it is how to take advantage of a weak point in his opponent’s game.

So Djokovic winning in three sets was a fairly logical result, but he still had to wait for the Rune vs Sinner match to see if he had qualified. A Rune win would mean that Rune and Sinner would go to the semis.

Sinner, the man to beat

Sinner was already qualified before the match, but if you win all your matches in the group stage, you get a significant financial bonus, so he definitely had something to play for.

Rune knew that a win would mean qualifying, so he was also motivated.

But Sinner rushed away with the first set, winning four straight games to start and the set 6-2.

The second set was a lot closer and Rune was more focused on the key points.

There was a similar story to the third set, but here Sinner played better at the key moments and finished the match: 6-2, 5-7, 6-4

This means Sinner is yet undefeated and will be the man to beat going into the semi-finals.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Prediction

Medvedev has a similar situation to Sinner. He is already qualified but a financial bonus is always nice and it is important to keep up the confidence for the knockout matches.

Alcaraz has a similar situation to Rune, if he wins, he is qualified. His match against Rublev was a promising step in the right direction, but is it enough to beat an in-form Medvedev on indoor courts?

The best tennis betting sites put Alcaraz as the favorite by 1.67 vs 2.20 for Medvedev. They are 2-2 in head-to-head, with Medvedev winning their most recent encounter at the US Open. If you prefer US format for odds and bets, you can check out Bovada.

The TN Prediction is that Alcaraz wins in three sets. He is more motivated and is slowly picking up his game from his weak first match against Zverev.

One thing to watch for in the Alcaraz vs Medvedev match is Medvedev’s court positioning when returning. In New York, people speculated that standing far back won’t work against the “King of Drop Shots”, but Medvedev found a way.

“I don’t care if I return close to the baseline and I always get one or two points because of it, but then I miss the other three returns and he always wins the game at 40/30. I prefer to maybe lose three games at 40/0, where he’s going to do serve and volley or something. But then there is going to be this one game where he’s going to get a little tight, I’m going to get one or two returns, and I break. 

“So it’s always this constant thinking, ‘How should I do it?’ Sometimes after the match, I can think, ‘I should have done it differently’, when I lose. You never know if it’s going to work, but I do change sometimes. Sometimes [my changes] are bigger, so maybe people can notice, sometimes not.”

Daniil Medvedev

Zverev vs Rublev Prediction

This match might be pointless for both players if Alcaraz defeats Medvedev in the day-session. Their head-to-head is 5-3 to Zverev, but Rublev has won their last three encounters. However, based on performance in this event, Zverev is the more in-form player.

Zverev’s performance will probably depend a bit on if he has a chance or not, but no matter what, he is the favorite to win the match. You get 1.67 times your money on a Zverev win and 2.20 on Rublev.

It looks unlikely that Rublev will reverse his lack of confidence for this match, but I think he can win his first set of the event.

TN Prediction: Zverev in three sets.

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