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ATP Finals Predictions, Alcaraz vs Zverev

by Jonas Eriksson

The ATP Finals 2023 started with some great matches. Let’s look at ATP Finals Predictions for day 2, including Alcaraz vs Zverev.

Day 1 of the ATP Finals 2023 in Turin delivered. Sinner did get the better of Tsitsipas relatively comfortably and as we discussed in our ATP Finals 2023 Predictions post, Sinner is a strong contender for the title outside Djokovic.

A reminder about the groups:

Green Group:
 Novak Djokovic (1), Jannik Sinner (4), Stefanos Tsitsipas (6), Holger Rune (8)

Red Group: Carlos Alcaraz (2), Daniil Medvedev (3), Andrey Rublev (5), Alexander Zverev (7)

Sinner winner chicken dinner

Sinner’s strategy against Tsitsipas was pretty clear. Keep up the tempo and target the backhand. In the end, he hit 22 winners and won 6-4 6-4 in less than 90 min.

“I was excited to step on court, and opening the Finals is really, really special. I knew it was going to be very tough but I think I handled the situation well. I tried to stay aggressive and I am very happy with the performance. I am happy to start off with a win and hopefully, I can continue with this intensity.”

Jannik Sinner

Tsitsipas, meanwhile, said that the beauty of the ATP Finals format is that he is still in it. He did lose a match to Nadal in the round-robin stage when he won the title in 2019.

“That’s the beauty of ATP Finals. It’s not over until it’s really over,” the World No. 6 said. “You can always re-bounce and you can always come back. It’s a good format. It allows for great competition and for some good comebacks that we don’t really see in the sport because our tour is based on knockout rounds, a single opportunity in every tournament.”

Stefanos Tsitisipas

Can the Greek bounce back? He said he will play freely and aggressively from now on and that does spell dangers for the other players in the group.

Djokovic is the year-end-number-one

The other match of the day was more of a fight. One the line: Djokovic would finish as the world number one for a record eighth time. He is going for ALL the records and has been refreshingly open about those intentions.

But Rune came to fight. He has beaten Novak before, and with Boris Becker, ex-coach of his opponent, in his box, I am sure there were some clever game-plan discussions before the match.

Despite losing the first set in a tie-break (does Djokovic ever lose tie-breaks?), Rune came back with an early break in the second set. He lost it pretty quickly, though and it looked like Novak was determined to finish the match in two sets.

But to reply to my own question, Djokovic rarely loses tie-breaks, but he did lose the second set one against Rune. Which made it for an appetizing final set.

Djokovic did take the initiative with an early break. Got broken back. But then he dialed up his intensity for another break and the match was done: 7-6(4), 6-7(1), 6-3.

“It means a lot,” said Djokovic of ensuring he will end the year as World No. 1. “You could see there were a lot of emotions on the court. I could feel it. I was very eager to win tonight’s match, get that monkey off my back. I won Paris, which put me in a much better position rankings-wise, and I knew coming into Turin I only needed to win one match. A big goal is achieved, everything else now is a bonus.”

Novak Djokovic

Novak credited Rune for playing really well and pushing him to the brink. It looks like he is in form and he still has a chance to qualify for the semi-final stage.

ATP Finals Predictions: Alcaraz vs Zverev

The Red Group starts with a tough one to predict. On paper, Alcaraz vs Zverev should be relatively straightforward. Alcaraz has won the three latest matches they have played, but the head-to-head is only 4-3 to the Spaniard.

But there are question marks around Alcaraz’s form after his early loss in Paris. And it’s the first time Alcaraz is playing the ATP Finals (he was injured last year), which hasn’t stopped him from performing before but can still be a question mark. And Zverev won this event in 2021.

Who handles the fast courts of the Pala Alpitour the best? I think Zverev is a bit more comfortable on fast indoor courts than Alcaraz, but the world number two is so confident and all-round as a player that he can play on anything.

Looking at the odds at William Hill as an example, Alcaraz is 1.44 vs Zverev at 2.75 (tennis betting odds explained). Alcaraz is the favorite, I agree, but I think a first match is always tough, so there is a decent chance for Zverev.

I am still going to pick Alcaraz in three sets based on his higher level of play overall, but I think it is a 60/40 match.

“I’m expecting the Carlos from early this year, despite the results I’ve had in recent tournaments. The defeat in Paris, which was quite painful, made me realise that I have to work harder,” he said of the match he lost in the recent ATP Masters 1000 against Roman Safiullin “And that’s what I’ve done. You always have to look for the positive in things. I’ve had several days to train to come here in optimum form. I’ve worked hard, on both fitness and tennis. I feel really good.”

Carlos Alcaraz

TN Prediction: Alcaraz in 3 sets

ATP Finals Predictions: Medvedev vs Rublev

This is a bro-match. Medvedev and Rublev are great friends but still fierce competitors. Medvedev has a 6-2 head-to-head record and has beaten Rublev twice this season in Dubai and at the US Open. Medvedev is also extremely at home on fast hard courts and has won the title before (2020).

All roads lead to a Medvedev win. The tennis bookies at Bovada rightfully put Medvedev as the favorite. You can find out more about ATP Finals Betting Sites and Odds here. Obviously, Rublev has a chance, but he needs to bring his A-game.

“I think he improved a lot this year,” Medvedev added when discussing Rublev. “He won a Masters 1000. The match I played against him at the US Open and the match I saw against Novak at Wimbledon, I think he improves step by step even more. Every match against him is tougher and tougher. I am going to have to fight my best, run a lot, and try to get him.”

Daniil Medvedev

Rublev has the game, but does he have the mind to do well at the ATP Finals? Sometimes, he doesn’t trust himself enough against the best players in the world and this tournament will be a stern test of his abilities.

TN Prediction: Medvedev in 2 sets.

Who do you think will win in today’s matches at the ATP Finals in Turin? Comment below.

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