Things are heating up down under! Here is our Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Preview and Betting Odds.
Carlos Alcaraz is arguably the most exciting guy in tennis right now, while Zverev has been in the press, but most recently for the wrong reasons. The impending court cases against Zverev has not derailed his ability to play good tennis, though. He has not been dominant in his matches, but found a way to win in four or five sets. How is his body feeling after all this tennis is an important question.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, has been pretty clinical and not really been tested thus far. The straight sets win over Kecmanovic in round 4 was a sign of strength, but every match-up in tennis is different and that is what makes the sport so exciting.
Alcaraz vs Zverev H2H and odds
Zverev is leading their head-to-head record by 4 matches to 3. He won their last encounter at the Nitto ATP Finals, a tournament where Alcaraz was not at his best, but it is still a solid win, of course. Alcaraz did, however, win their previous two encounters in 2023 in straight sets. One was at the US Open and one was in Madrid.
Even though Zverev is leading the H2H, Alcaraz is the pretty clear favorite on paper. Most bookies give an Alcaraz win 1.22 times your money, while Zverev gets close to 5 times your bet.
We got some matches right in our Australian Open Quarter-Finals predictions post, the Medvedev 3-2 set win over Hurkacz was something we take pride in spotting.
If we look at set betting options, a 3-1 win to Alcaraz is the most likely in our opinion and that gives you 3.7 times your money. If you want to be daring, a 3-2 win to Zverev is not impossible and that is 13 times your bet.
You can find the best betting sites for betting on the Australian Open here.
Keys to the match
For Zverev to make this match competitive, he has to serve out of a tree (meaning well). His serve is a difference-maker when it’s on, while Alcaraz is not relying on that weapon as much to win points. When he beat Alcaraz at the Nitto ATP Finals, he had a 77% first serve percentage and won 79% of the points. The serve will allow him to be clutch when saving break points. One of Zverev’s strongest abilities is that he can really tighten the screws and focus when a match goes down to the write. He is a clutch player when he gets into those situations and the serve is a strong reason for that.
He also has to hope that Alcaraz is not having a great day. The Spaniard does have days when the unforced errors creep in, and he goes for too much, especially on the forehand. But based on his previous matches and form, this looks rather unlikely. For Alcaraz, it is important to be patient and not go for too much too soon. If he can do that, he is the clear favorite to reach the semi-finals.
Alcaraz vs Zverev Prediction
Zverev is a little tired, while Alcaraz is fresh and in form. Zverev will steal a set thanks to some excellent serving and fighting skills, but the match ends 3-1 to Alcaraz.
