Before we get into the Davis Cup Final Australia vs Italy Prediction, we need to give huge props to Jannik Sinner and Italy.
Sinner defeats Djokovic twice in the same day
It has never been done before in professional tennis, but Jannik Sinner shows it is possible. He defeated Djokovic both in singles 6-2 2-6 7-5, saving three match points from 0-40 down in the process. Then he joined Sonego for the doubles match against Djokovic and Kecmanovic where they were clearly the stronger team, with a straightforward 6-3 6-4 win.
“Match of my life? I don’t know”, pondered Sinner. “But it’s for sure very important. It helps a lot the last competition that it’s a team competition, because you get a lot of energy from your teammates, from the whole team, and then the crowd is different. I really enjoyed playing today. It was a great match.”
Jannik Sinner
When Serbia started the match with a 6-7 6-2 6-1 win, everyone thought it was over for the Italians because Djokovic had won 21 consecutive Davis Cup matches. I thought it was a bit strange to start with Musetti against Kecmanovic, because although Musetti is an excellent player, he is a bit moody and prone to ups and downs and a little bit choking. Not qualities that are suitable for Davis Cup matches.
Towards the end of the season, many players are tired and struggle with some kind of injury, so Musetti did falter physically towards the end of that match. But overall, you have to credit Kecmanovic for his Davis Cup performance, it has been excellent.
A very impressive performance by the Italian team and Sinner specifically and a surprising disappointment for Djokovic and the rest of the team.
“Congratulations to Italy for qualifying for finals”, said Djokovic. “They deserved it. They played really well, particularly Jannik, in singles against me and then doubles as well. He barely missed a ball the entire match.
“For me personally it’s a huge disappointment, because I take the responsibility, obviously having three match points, being so close to winning it. When you lose for your country, the bitter feeling is even greater.”
Novak Djokovic
Davis Cup Final Australia vs Italy Prediction
If we start with the betting odds, Italy are very strong favorites in this one. Most tennis betting sites give low odds on Italy winning, something like 1.36 your bet (read about how betting odds work here) and 3 times your money on Australia winning.
My prediction before the Italy vs Serbia match was that Australia would win the final. After seeing Italy play so freely, I am open to changing my mind.
Italy has relied heavily on Sinner, because Arnaldi and Musetti have both lost their singles matches. Sinner is the favorite against De Minaur, but the other match is quite open. Will Australia go for Alexei Popyrin again? I think that is a better choice than Thompson, for example. Popyrin can beat Arnaldi, who is most likely playing instead of an injured Musetti or Sonego who needs to be saved for doubles.
I think the singles will end up 1-1. Popyrin and Sinner winning their matches.
That leaves doubles. Sonego and Sinner have played great doubles, but they will face off against two real specialists in Ebden and Purcell. It leaves that eternal question: are two strong singles players better at doubles than two doubles specialists?
Tough one. It very much relies on the players and how much in sync they are. Sonego and Sinner have won both of their matches without dropping a set and are match-warm. I think that will make the difference.
TN Prediction
Italy wins 2-1
