We continue our featured match of the day! Here is Denis Shapovalov vs Hugo Gaston Preview with some good odds.
The match happens at the Open de Sud de France, Montpellier. It is an ATP 250. We preview the tournament in our latest This Week in Tennis.
Denis Shapovalov vs Hugo Gaston Preview
Why did we pick this match? Well, we have two fascinating and different players on the court. Former top ten player, Denis Shapovalov, now ranked outside the top 100 due to injury. Since his return to the tour, Shapovalov has struggled to win a match. He has only played two of them, both straight sets losses.
Is this the time he can return to winning ways? It is not going to be easy as Gaston, ranked 88, is a tricky player capable of beating very strong opposition on a good day. Since the end of 2023, Gaston is also working with former top player Younes El Aynaoui.
“I was very excited, because everybody wants to be with the most competitive player he can. So I thought Hugo was a good prospect, is still a young player who had very good progression on the ATP,” Younes El Aynaoui said. “The ranking dropped a little bit, he was 140 when he called me. So the challenge was interesting to try to put him back at least where he was and maybe improve his game.
“He has very spectacular tennis to watch, because he’s playing a lot of drop shots. He’s really using all the angles and all the surface of the court. But I thought already at that time — I was far away from working for him — but I already thought that would be an interesting player to work with.”
Younes El Aynaoui, coach of Hugo Gaston
It will be fascinating to see what El Aynaoui can bring to Gaston’s game.
Prediction and odds
One key element that makes a match-up fascinating is contrasting player styles. Shapovalov is an aggressive player with a flashy game that can fluctuate quite heavily in quality during a match. Gaston does not have the weapons of Shapovalov, but runs everything down and is something of a drop shot king. Gaston is also masterful at using the crowd (this match is played in France) to his advantage and has been known to “bend” the rules a bit to win match (just google him).
This makes for an interesting match-up. Shapovalov is the favorite according to the bookmakers at 1.75 (-137.5) times your bet, but I think Gaston at 2.1 (+110) is great value considering Shapo’s start to the year and that the match is played at home.
My prediction is that Gaston wins this match 2-1. He tends to play well in France and has the game and personality to frustrate a player like Shapovalov. There is also the confidence factor of Shapo not yet having won a set in 2024.
Gaston did beat Carballes-Baena at the Australian Open before losing badly to Taylor Fritz, so I think he has more positive emotions to bring to the court.
Who do you think will win?
