Home Predictions Paris Masters Final 2023 Djokovic vs Dimitrov Prediction

Paris Masters Final 2023 Djokovic vs Dimitrov Prediction

by Jonas Eriksson

It is Sunday and time for a Paris Masters Final 2023 Djokovic vs Dimitrov Prediction. Who do you think will win?

Paris Masters Final 2023 Djokovic vs Dimitrov Prediction

The stage is set for the Paris Masters Final 2023 between Djokovic and Dimitrov. Their head-to-head of 11-1 in favor of the world number one makes very few people believe in the upset. The last time Dimitrov defeated Djokovic was at the ATP Masters in Madrid in 2013.

Both players went through some tough and long matches to get to the final. Djokovic defeated Rublev 5-7 7-6 7-5 in a 2,5 hour match, while Dimitrov defeated Tsitsipas 6-3 6-7 7-6 in a three hour semi-final. Legs should be fairly tired.

The states of mind should be quite different, though. Djokovic has been in this position so many times. On the line is his 40th Masters title. Dimitrov has won one ATP Masters title, in Cincinnati 2017. He has actually not won another title since 2017 overall. So a win over Djokovic in the final would be a HUGE result.

The benefit of Dimitrov’s head-to-head and results overall compared to Djokovic is that he can have a “I have nothing to lose” mindset. He can literally go out swinging and hope for the best. Upsets happen. He is playing well and beat another top ten player in the semi-final.

The downside of all this is that he will find it difficult to actually believe he can beat Djokovic in a final.

Keys to the match

Dimitrov needs to serve well. He cannot win purely by trading shots from the baseline. Djokovic is too steady. He needs to go all out and take the initiative from the first shot. Doing this well is his only chance to win and he knows it.

This is what he said after his match against Tsitsipas:

“I think for me where I’m at right now, things in a way, they’re going my way, but also I’m looking for them as well,” said Dimitrov after he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in Saturday’s semi-finals at the ATP Masters 1000 event. “I’m not waiting for my opponent to do something with it or I’m not waiting for them to miss.

“I want to win or lose on my own terms… I can control my attitude, and I don’t want to feel sorry for myself for the past years. I don’t want to feel like I have missed opportunities. Have I? Yeah, of course, too many, if you ask me. Have I made mistakes? Yes, too many.

“There comes a point where it’s like, okay, I’m accepting all that had been thrown at me, what I had to face, and I continue. I get to have another chance. So when you get that chance, try to use it. So I’m trying to give myself a chance.”

This sounds like a great maturing from Dimitrov and a good mindset to have, which is probably why he is playing so well. I mean, Monfils won a title in Stockholm the other week. So even though many perceive players like Dimitrov and Monfils to be underachievers based on their talent, there are still weeks where they will show the world how well they can play.

Djokovic’s stomach virus

Based on stats, head-to-head, confidence, yeah pretty whatever you can come up with, Djokovic is the overwhelming favorite. If you are into tennis betting sites, you see that you only get 1.30 on average on Djokovic and 3.5 times you money on Dimitrov. But predicting Dimitrov seems more like wishful thinking at this point. Unless…this is what Djokovic commented after his semi-final win:

“[I have been] going through quite a difficult stomach virus that really made me feel terrible the past three days, but somehow [managed] to find strength, find energy under the adrenaline rush of playing a match,” said Djokovic, who battled past Tallon Griekspoor, Holger Rune and Andrey Rublev all in three sets to book his spot in the final. “Not giving up, fighting and believing that I can come back, which happened again and hopefully it can happen tomorrow.”

Novak has won matches with ailing health before, but a stomach virus is always a bit of a spanner in the works if it is still there. But despite the virus, he has still beaten three strong players on the way, so I doubt it will play much of a role.


There is a small chance for an upset here based on Dimitrov’s excellent form and current mindset. Djokovic’s more-or-less upset stomach is another factor. But you can’t bet against Djokovic these days. His quest for glory and history seems unstoppable.

We think Djokovic will win in straight sets, but we hope for a close match!

What is your prediction?

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