Our tennis oracle, Alex Mann, is doing his Masters, but he still had time to write a US Open 2023 Women’s Semi-Finals Predictions.
US Open 2023 Women’s Semi-Finals Predictions
128 players entered this year’s women’s tournament. Only four remain. Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka, Karolina Muchova and Madison Keys.
Let’s jump into this year’s women’s semi-finals predictions.
Aryna Sabalenka (2) vs Madison Keys (17)
With Iga Swiatek’s loss to Jelena Ostapenko in the fourth round, Aryna Sabalenka is guaranteed to end the US Open ranked number 1 worldwide. Now that the Belarusian knows she will dethrone Swiatek on Monday when the new WTA rankings are released, she can concentrate on the job. That is to win her second major title of the year. Sabalenka has looked in formidable form all tournament. She has only dropped twenty-one games in five matches leading up to the semi-finals. She has faced fairly weak competition in the earlier rounds, but her last two opponents, Daria Kasatkina and Qinwen Zheng, are no walkovers. Kasatkina and Zheng managed to win a mere nine games between them. It feels like Sabalenka is playing in a league of her own, and I don’t know if anyone who’s left in the draw can match, let alone better, the Belarusian’s tennis.
Madison Keys will have to believe she can overcome her opponent. Still only 28, it feels like Keys has been on the tour for years. She won her first WTA match as a 14-year-old, made her US Open main draw a 16-year-old, and lifted her first tour title as a 19-year-old. High expectation was put on the shoulders of the then-teenage sensation, even being touted as the next great hope for American tennis. Struggles with consistency and injuries have cost her valuable time, and she is still searching for her first major singles title. This tournament, Keys has shown glimpses that time is still on her side. She defeated fellow American Jessica Pegula in the third round of this year’s tournament and figured her way through newly crowned Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova. To beat two in-form players in straight sets is pretty impressive, so Keys will have full belief she can bring her best against Sabalenka. The home crowd will be fully behind Keys as they have done all tournament. However, I struggled to see how the American could win this match. Keys has everything Sabalenka does, but the Belarusian just does it better. You just have to look at their quarter-final match from this year’s Wimbledon tournament. Keys didn’t play a poor match by any means. She lost 6-2 6-4. I think it will be the same result this time around.
Prediction – Sabalenka to win in two sets
Coco Gauff (6) vs Karolina Muchova (10)
Coco Gauff’s path to the semi-final has been hasn’t the most straightforward. The 19-year-old dropped the opening set in the first round against Laura Siegemund. Gauff battled through her third and fourth-round matches against Elise Mertens and the returning Caroline Wozniacki. A sign of season-ending fatigue could have been gestured at this tournament stage. Gauff shrugged any talk off this with a dominant performance against Ostapenko in the quarter-final, dropping just two games to advance to her first semi at her home major. Although her game hasn’t been as rock solid as it was during her victory at the Cincinnati Masters two weeks ago, she has been able to win when she hasn’t been at her best.
Gauff will be the favorite heading into this match. She’s the home favorite, and the fast courts of New York suit her game. Nevertheless, this match is no foregone conclusion. The American crowd will expect Gauff to win, and I don’t know how much the expectation for her to win could affect her. If there are any signs of nerves, Muchova will pounce. The Czech’s no-rhythm game won’t make the task any easier for Gauff, and she will need to look out for her slices, angles, and touch shots. Muchova used this effectively during her run to the French Open final, narrowly losing out to Iga Swiatek on that occasion. After her breakthrough, reaching the 2019 Wimbledon quarter-final, injuries derailed Muchova’s trajectory to the top of the game. Now 27 and ranked 10 in the world, it feels like she can go all the way and win a major.
I expect this match to be extremely close, and there is little to separate both players, but I give the slightest edge to Gauff. The American defeated the Czech in the Cincinnati final and this recent victory should give her the belief she can come out victorious in this semi-final match.
Prediction – Gauff to win in three sets
