The action continues in Buenos Aires with Carlos Alcaraz and Bernabe Zapata Miralles fighting for a place in the final of this ATP 250 event. The match is scheduled for 6:00 pm local time and one thing is guaranteed, there will be a Spanish player in the final. Continue reading to find out our analysis and betting tips for this match, as well as the best sportsbooks to place your bets.
Alcaraz vs Zapata Miralles Betting Odds
– Odds are subject to change –
Please note:
All brands displayed on the list above are Legal Online Sports Betting Sites, however you are responsible for determining the legality of online gambling in your jurisdiction, and that you are of legal age to bet.
Betting Preview for Alcaraz vs Zapata Miralles – ATP Buenos Aires
Carlos Alcaraz continues his successful run at the Buenos Aires Open, his first tournament of the year. The world no.2 missed the first weeks of the season, including the Australian Open, after sustaining a leg injury during training. This is Alcaraz first ever appearance in the Argentinean capital and he’ll be looking to become the first Spanish champion since Rafael Nadal in 2015.
Looking at Alcaraz’s campaign on this event so far, the 19-year-old needed three sets on his debut against Laslo Djere, winning 6-2 4-6 6-2. In the following round he faced another Serbian player, Dusan Lajovic, defeating the qualifier by 6-4 6-2 in one hour and 34 minutes.
Despite winning in straight sets, Alcaraz still struggled to maintain a consistent level throughout the entire match, which is understandable as this is his first tournament in a long time. The Spaniard lost his serve twice and only won 63% of the points with his first serve, which is 3% below his average in the last 12 months on this surface.
In the semifinals Alcaraz will face a fellow countryman, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, who is making his first ever appearance in the semifinals of an ATP event. The 26-year-old is living the best phase of his career and is guaranteed to enter the top 65 for the first time, regardless of this Saturday’s result.
It has been a week of upsets for Zapata Miralles, winning the last two matches as underdog against Diego Schwartzman and Francisco Cerundolo. Both were played in night session against the home favorites, but Bernabe showed no signs of nerves and produced his best tennis.
In his previous round against Cerundolo, the Spaniard saved 10 of the 12 break points he faced and won 57% of the points on Cerundolo’s second serve, very impressive numbers.
As mentioned, this is the first time that Zapata Miralles is playing a semifinal on the ATP Tour, as he only played this stage in Challenger events before. This makes is a unique opportunity for 26-year-old and, for sure, the most important match of his career.
Alcaraz vs Zapata Miralles Head-to-Head
This will be the 3rd official meeting between these two players with one victory for each of them. However, both matches took place a few years ago, when Alcaraz was yet to reach the top of the rankings.
The first encounter took place at the Cordenons Challenger in 2020, with Zapata Miralles winning in three sets, while the second match was at the French Open in 2021 and Alcaraz was the winner of that one in four sets.
Alcaraz vs Zapata Miralles Betting Prediction
The sportsbooks have no doubt about who’s the favorite to win this with Alcaraz as the heavy favorite to get the win. We agree that he’s the favorite, but the prices look too low after his previous performances.
It’s true that Alcaraz won in straight sets against Lajovic, but still struggled to maintain a consistent level and gave good chances to the Serbian. However, Lajovic was not able to capitalize those and allowed Alcaraz to regain the lead, even if the Spaniard was not playing his best tennis.
On this contest Zapata Miralles has nothing to lose and that can make him a dangerous opponent. We saw in the previous round how well he handled the pressure of playing night sessions against the crowd’s favorite, so we expect him to perform at a good level once again.
Even though a victory from Zapata Miralles is unlikely, the Over 19 games looks a very interesting approach to take here. He should be able to break Alcaraz’s serve at least once or twice, making this a much closer contest than the odds suggest.
We recommend to avoid the spread on this contest, as we can see a similar result to Alcaraz’s match against Djere in the first round. The former world no.1 won that match 6-2 4-6 6-2, covering the spread in three sets. He’s a player who often drops a set but ends up winning at least one of them by a large margin, making it very dangerous to go against him on the spread.
For that reason, the Over 19 games, which is available at around -105, seems to be the most interesting approach for this encounter.
