The first round of the ATP Indian Wells Masters will feature an all-American clash between John Isner and Brandon Nakashima. This should be a very entertaining match and one thing is certain, there will be an American winner in the end. Find out our detailed prediction for this match, the best tennis betting tips, as the most trustworthy sportsbooks to place your bets.
Isner to Win
Betting Prediction for Isner vs Nakashima – ATP Indian Wells
John Isner returns to Indian Wells for his 16th appearance on this event and will be looking for another positive campaign. Isner always enjoyed playing in the California desert, reaching the final of this tournament back in 2012 and winning 66.67% of the matches played on this event. However, for the first time since 2009 he won’t be one of the top seeds, which means that he doesn’t get a bye in the first round.
At the age of 37, Isner remains an incredible competitor and one of the best servers in the game. This year he already made it to an ATP final in Dallas, but things haven’t been so easy for him. Despite that successful run in northern Texas, Isner lost in the opening round in all the other three events he played so far in 2023. The last of them was in Acapulco, with Isner losing in the first round to fellow American Taylor Fritz in three sets.
Isner will start his campaign in Indian Wells against Brandon Nakashima, one of the most promising young American players on the ATP Tour. The 21-year-old ended 2022 in great form, winning the Next Gen ATP tournament and reaching a career-high ranking of world no.43. Nevertheless, things haven’t been easy for Nakashima so far in 2023, with just one victory in the four matches he played so far this season.
Nakashima’s last defeat in Acapulco was quite disappointing, as he lost 2-6, 0-6 to Mackenzie McDonald in just 66 minutes. Nakashima clearly struggled with his serve and only won 43% of his service points, which is far below his 67.3% average on hard court over the last 12 months. This will be the third time that Nakashima will play the main draw in Indian Wells. So far, the world no.48 has never made it past the second round, but will be looking to reach that stage once more with a victory over Isner on this match.
Isner vs Nakashima Head-to-Head
This will be the fourth official meeting between these two players. Nakashima leads 2-1 in their head-to-head and also won their most recent encounter at the US Open in 2022.
All their previous matches were quite close, with a tiebreak necessary to solve three of their last five sets, which is quite usual considering that Isner is involved in the match.
Isner vs Nakashima Betting Tips – ATP Indian Wells
The sportsbooks are expecting a very close contest with similar odds to both players to win this match. Looking at the prices in the best sportsbooks for tennis betting, Nakashima is the slight favorite to get the win at around 1.81, which is -123 in American odds. On the other hand, Isner’s moneyline for this match against Nakashima can be found at 2.08 (+108) in the best bookies.
Despite Nakashima’s lead in their head-to-head, this won’t be an easy match for him. Besides his poor results so far this season, Nakashima has never played very well in Indian Wells. The conditions on this event are quite unique due to the dry desert air, making the ball fly through the air and much harder to control.
On the contrary, Isner enjoys the conditions on this event and his serve is even harder to return, since the ball bounces higher than normally does.
No doubts that Nakashima is the better player from the baseline, but that might not be enough against a player like Isner. It will be very hard for Nakashima to break his opponent’s serve and we should see at least one tiebreak on this match.
Looking at Brandon’s numbers on serve so far this season, the 21-year-old is only winning 80.7% of his service games in 2023. It’s true that on this match he will face a player who is not known for his return skills, but Nakashima is also hitting an average of 0.30 double faults per service games. This is not a great indicator, especially on tiebreaks where one mistake on serve can be fatal against a player like Isner.
With this in mind, the value is on Isner to get the win here, as his moneyline presents a good opportunity to bet against Nakashima. The conditions in Indian Wells suit his style and he always performed at a great level on this event. On the other hand, Nakashima has struggled to find his form in 2023 and has yet to have a good run on this tournament.