Matteo Berrettini has historically been one of the better performers at the US Open tournament, but how will he perform in 2024? The Italian is the definition of a dark horse, with big weapons and a track record of doing damage in Grand Slams.
We say his chances of doing well at the event are fairly high. He’s been to two semi-finals here, played incredible tennis for multiple years, and just looks like a US Open champion.
The 28-year-old has been able to attract quite a few fans over the years as well. The crowd likes him, and it’s just a great place for him. We’ve seen this in tennis before. Some players just do well in certain spots, and for Berrettini, that’s New York and Madrid.
Matteo Berrettini’s Odds to Win the US Open 2024
Berrettini has the 10th-best odds to win the US Open right now. Most bookmakers have the Italian tied with multiple players at 81.00 (+8000). However, if we look at the others – Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe – Berrettini by far has the best case.
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Berrettini’s Form in 2024
Berrettini hasn’t played as many matches as some of his opponents have this year, but he’s been incredible when he has played.
So far this season, Berrettini has won three trophies, though all of them were on clay. This is less a product of his game, and mostly just how his season came to be, because he missed the early hard court swing with injury.
Two stats are crucial for his US Open chances. He hits his first serve over 70 percent of the time in his matches, which is very good. He also holds his serve at the highest rate ever in his career – a fairly useful combination for winning tennis matches!
Path to the Final
Berrettini’s draw could have been better, but a rocky road is to be expected as he’s not seeded. Draws are never going to be great if you’re not seeded and that’s just, unfortunately, due to his injury problems.
He has a simple first-round match against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, but then he’ll face Taylor Fritz, who has been performing well in New York. It won’t be easy, but he can win that one.
On the other side of Fritz, the US Open men’s draw opens up again for Berrettini, with Ugo Humbert and Casper Ruud his next two likely matches–very winnable for the Italian. His quarter-final, if he makes it that far, would potentially be against Holger Rune or Alexander Zverev, with Novak Djokovic on the other side.
The Case for Berrettini Winning the US Open 2024
Berrettini didn’t get the best draw, but he’s decently favored to make a deep run. It’s only Taylor Fritz early that can give him some problems, and he hasn’t played well at all.
Fritz hasn’t won a match since the Olympics, so Berrettini can win that one.
The reason is simple. He’s been amazing at the US Open in the past, making the semi-final in two different years. The most recent event didn’t go that well for him because he injured himself.
The Serve
Berrettini’s serve is his major weapon because it does so much damage. It’s the same reason he’s so good on grass. It’s just a huge advantage that makes him dominate, thanks to his high in percentage and frequent aces/unreturnable serves. If he doesn’t win on the serve, more often than not it sets up a short ball that he can put away.
The Forehand and Backhand
Any shorter ball will be heavily punished by his forehand, which is one of the best forehands in the world. The backhand isn’t as good, but Berrettini somehow makes it work.
He has a really nice backhand slice that does wonders on grass, but it’s also serviceable on hard courts. Mostly, though, it’s about his confidence right now.
Career-Best Form
The Italian is having his best year in several metrics, following some bad luck with injuries in previous years, which are very important to how he’ll do in New York.
First is the serve, and as mentioned earlier, he’s hitting it above 70 percent in most of his matches. If he keeps these numbers up in New York he’ll be really hard to break.
He’s also holding his serve at his best rate so far in his career, which again boosts his chances of doing well here. If you can’t break you won’t beat him. That’s just how it is.
With Berrettini having won three trophies in the last four months, he’s also on pace to crack a new career high. He’s playing well, loves New York, and is a good chance of going deep here.
Our prediction for Berrettini: Quarter-finals.
Berrettini should be able to beat Taylor Fritz in the second round because he has the tools to do so. He should then beat Casper Ruud in the fourth round simply because he is in far better form right now.
Ultimately the run will likely end against Alexander Zverev in the quarter-final as the German is uniquely equipped to handle the Italian, especially his serve. If there’s one man serving better than Berrettini right now, it’s Zverev.
How do you think Berrettini will go in New York? Let us know below!
