If you wanted to be the best in the world at a particular shot in tennis, and you could only choose one, you would choose the ‘serve’ (formally known as ‘service’) a 100 out of 100 times*. It is one of the hardest shots in tennis, especially for a beginner, but once you master the mechanics, it is a formidable weapon to possess in your arsenal.
While it looks straightforward on television, it requires the right ball toss, stance, body turn, racket grip, trophy position (position of hands right before racket drop behind your head), knee-bend, acceleration from the ground using your feet, pronation, timing of ball contact and the follow through. All of these elements have to be in sync to generate one fluid motion in order to land the ball in the desired spot across the net, with pace and spin. A piece of cake right?
Avoiding all jargons, in simpler terms, a tennis serve is essentially a free smash to be hit (by tossing a ball as high as you want) from behind the baseline (39 ft from the net), just that it has to land inside a rectangular box (21 ft in length * 13.5 ft in width), closer to the net, on the diagonally opposite side (0.914 m in height at the middle and slightly higher on the sides – 1.07 m).
The serve is a shot that dictates points and gives you an advantage against your opponent right at the start of a rally, be it on any playing surface. As widely known, the game of tennis is not about winning more points, but about winning the key points. The serve is a lifeline that gets you out of a jam in the most crucial moments of a match. But what constitutes a good serve? The most important elements are speed, placement, spin and the consistency of delivering all three in some proportion on both your first and second serves.
* The second most important shot would probably be the ‘serve return’
Having a potent second serve is as important as having a powerful and accurate first serve. While one may not generate the same level of pace on the second serve, having spin and variety on it makes it unyielding. For example, a kick serve, though slower, has heavy top spin and a high arc and it bounces high off the court, pushing the opponent wide and making it difficult to return. Also, having a reliable second serve (less number of double faults) frees you up on the first serve.
Who have been the best servers of 2024 till date?
While the method of determining the best server may be subjective and is in no way conclusive, I have tried my best to analyse the parameters which are most relevant according to me (based on the available data).
The first serve is a weapon, which if used well, can increase your chances of winning drastically. But the first serve % (number first serves which land in as a % of your total first serves) in isolation may not be a good indicator. By compromising on speed and/or placement, one might be landing most of the first serves but still might not be winning many points on it, simply due to its lack of effectiveness. This is why I have not considered so many players with just a high first serve %, but lacking in other parameters, such as Sebastian Baez with a 72.7 first serve %, Dusan Lajovic with 70.2% etc. Just landing more first serves does not win you points. Hence, the more relevant data point would be the first serve win %. Supporting this with a high first serve %, makes it a lethal combination!
The third important factor I have taken into account is the % of service games won. The fact that your serve is not broken easily is a strong indicator of your serve quality. Though I recognize the fact that the serve alone may not be contributing to the service holds. One needs to do much more than that. In my opinion, the speed and accuracy of a serve largely drives the percentages I have discussed and hence is automatically covered within them.
Let’s first look at the players with the best first serve win % on tour in 2024, sorted in descending order. I have included the first serve % as well to analyse the two parameters as a combination.
Please note: the above list is not just the highest first serve win % players. I have excluded some players who do not have a high enough first serve % to back it up.
Surprisingly, Grigor Dimitrov has the highest first serve win % on tour in 2024, with Jannik Sinner being a close second. Within the top 5, if you combine the first serve win % with the first serve %, Hubert Hurkacz’s numbers are strong, along with Taylor Fritz. But the player having a more balanced combination of the two percentages would be Alexander Zverev. Though he is 8th on this list in terms of first serve win%, if you take into account the number of serves he’s landing in with that win%, he makes a strong case.
The 73.3% first serve % is the highest on tour this year! And since he has a good win % too, indicates he’s not compromising on the speed and placement that much. Also, Ben Shelton has a decent combination of the above, however, the gap between his first serve win % with the leaders (Dimitrov and Sinner) seems to be too big (4.9%) to ignore.
Jack Draper and Jan-Lennard Struff also have booming first serves, but their first serve % is too low to make it to the top 5. Isn’t it mind boggling that the Spanish sensation who has won two out of three grand slams this season is not even in the top 30 in terms of first serve win % (72.0%)?
Delving deeper, the top six players in the above list sorted by % of service games won in 2024 is given below:
* Please note that only players who have played >=30 matches in 2024 have been considered.
Considering the year Sinner is having, with a 42-4 win-loss record including 4 titles in 2024 (till the end of Wimbledon), the above result is not surprising. Hurkacz and Zverev are close behind, with Dimitrov and Fritz also having a good percentage. Andrey Rublev winning 88.7% of all his service games is a revelation, considering the number of shock losses he has had during the year to lower ranked players.
The top players sorted by second serve points won is given below:
I have given less weightage to the second serve win % because a major reason for a high second serve win % is the quality of a player’s overall game rather than the serve itself. The best players tend to win nearly 55% of their second serve points, and the difference in this % between the top players from above is negligible, barring Sinner and Rublev (another surprise!) who have outperformed. The 24-time grand slam champion Novak Djokovic also made it in this list.
The aces and double faults might not give us deep insights, but it does give you an idea of the kind of dominance exerted on the serve. Hurkacz has the highest aces/match (13) and the lowest double faults per match (tied with Fritz). Dimitrov has too many double faults per match (2.8).
As per data on tennisabstract.com, since Monte Carlo Open 2024 (nearly all matches included) about 47.2% of Hurkacz’s first serves and 17.1% of his second serves have gone unreturned. The numbers for Sinner since start of Miami Open 2024 (nearly all matches included) are 43.0% and 15.7%, respectively.
Taking into account all the parameters described above, the comparison on key parameters for the top 5 servers of 2024 are given below:
While Dimitrov has the highest first serve win %, he lags behind on other parameters including aces and double faults per match. While Sinner has the highest service games won % and the second highest first serve win %, Hurkacz is very close to him and along with that, Hurkacz also has a higher first serve % and more dominance in terms of unreturned serves.
Fritz has similar numbers to Hurkacz, but slightly behind on most parameters, except first serve win %. Zverev in an interesting case as though he has a lower first serve win %, he more than compensates it with a very high first serve %.
Conclusion: My order for the top 5 servers in 2024 (till Wimbledon 2024) would be:
- 1. Hubert Hurkacz
- 2. Taylor Fritz
- 3. Jannik Sinner / Alexander Zverev
- 4. Grigor Dimitrov
2 comments
Very well explained
At 73.3 x 76.1 = 55.78%, Zverev won the most point from his first serves. I’d think this is what we are comparing when deciding who’s the best server.