The men’s semi-finals take place this Friday at Wimbledon, with Novak Djokovic in red-hot pursuit of yet another stunning record. Between him and a record-equalling eighth Wimbledon title stands an unlikely opponent: Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti. In the earlier semi-final we see defending champion Alcaraz vs Medvedev.
Can Musetti, playing in his first Grand Slam semi-final, upset seven-time Wimbledon champion Djokovic, who has made the final four of a major 49 times now? Check out our Musetti vs Djokovic predictions, complete with an odds analysis and a break down of each player’s form.
Djokovic vs Musetti Odds
Ahead of this semi-final clash, here’s how tennis bookmakers are viewing this match up:
- Novak Djokovic @ 1.17 | -600
- Lorenzo Musetti @ 5.00 | +400
The Djokovic vs Musetti odds heavily favor the former, with Djokovic paying just 1.17 (-600) to win on Friday. Musetti is a big underdog at 5.00 (+400), courtesy of his inexperience at this level. As for handicap betting, a -6.5 handicap has been given to Djokovic at 2.00 (+100), while Musetti pays 1.73 (-138) to cover the same spread.
Set betting expects this one to be short and sweet. A win to the 24-time Grand Slam champion by three sets to love pays 2.10 (+110), with Musetti at 17.00 (+1600) for the same result. Total games are at 35.5, paying 1.91 (-110) for the over market and 1.80 (-125) for the under.
Djokovic vs Musetti Preview
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has been the center of plenty of attention this Wimbledon.
First, it was all about his knee. Few expected him to play, given he was having surgery for a torn meniscus this time last month. And yet, he managed to recover incredibly well, and took to the courts last week. Seeing him slide into the corners and contort himself in all sorts of positions boggles the mind, considering what his body has just been through.
Then came Djokovic’s fiery post-match speech after defeating Holger Rune in the Wimbledon round of 16. The Serb took exception to what he believed to be booing by some Danish fans, berating the crowd and declaring, “You can’t touch me!” to the Centre Court crowd.
It’s safe to say the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s fire in the belly is well and truly back, after a surprisingly lackluster past six months that has seen him fail to make a single final in 2024.
Results-wise this tournament, it’s been business as usual for Djokovic. He navigated his first three rounds without breaking a sweat–admittedly dropping sets to both Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin–but never looking at risk in either match.
After trouncing No.15 seed Rune for the loss of just nine games, Djokovic received some luck when No 9 seed Alex de Minaur was forced to withdraw due to injury. This gifted him an extra day’s rest, handing Djokovic a walkover into the semi-finals.
Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti has been a big surprise at this year’s Wimbledon, but the signs were already there for anyone that has been watching the Italian closely.
Ahead of London, the 22-year-old recorded two strong results on grass. First he made the Stuttgart semi-finals, losing to compatriot Matteo Berrettini, before going one step further to make the final of Queen’s, ousting No 2 seed De Minaur on the way.
Before these results, it had not been a good season for Musetti. He had only won back-to-back matches on three occasions at the Tour-level, making the round of 16 at the Miami Masters, Monte-Carlo Masters and French Open.
Here at Wimbledon, he’s had to work hard for his spot in the semi-finals. None of his five victories have been in straight sets, with three four setters and two going the distance.
First he saw off Constant Lestienne 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-2, 6-2, before winning an arm wrestle against fellow Italian Luciano Darderi, prevailing 6-4, 4-6, 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-4. Musetti then navigated the third and fourth rounds in four sets, defeating Argentina’s Francisco Comesana and French lucky loser Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
Most recently, he pulled off his biggest win of the tournament, upsetting No 13 seed Taylor Fritz in a three-hour, 27-minute five setter.
Djokovic vs Musetti Prediction
Our Djokovic vs Musetti prediction is based on three factors: head-to-head, experience, and motivation.
Looking at the pair’s rivalry so far, it’s been decidedly in favor of Djokovic. He leads 5-1, with his only loss coming last year in Monte-Carlo, a tournament where he’s often undercooked and upset prone. Two of his victories have also been demoralizing come-from-behind wins, where the Serbian won in five sets after Musetti gained an early lead.
There’s nothing in this head-to-head that makes us think Musetti can win this one. Whenever he’s found success, it’s always been because Djokovic is off, rather than because of anything he’s done, per say.
Speaking of which, we expect Djokovic to be on in this match. The seven-time Wimbledon champion has a chip on his shoulder this year, and clearly is determined to prove his nay-sayers wrong. History shows this usually only ends one way.
Throw this in with the gulf in experience at this end of a Grand Slam, plus the elite level that Djokovic showed against Rune, and we’re picking this one will be short and sweet.
Prediction: Djokovic in straight sets.
What’s your Djokovic vs Musetti prediction? Can the Italian pull off an upset of epic proportions on Friday?
