Match ups are beginning to get very competitive now that Wimbledon is into its second week. Tonight is no exception, with 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic squaring off against former world No 4 Holger Rune for a spot in the quarter-finals.
The pair have met five times before on the ATP Tour, in what is a fascinating rivalry. Unlike many of Djokovic’s other head-to-heads, this is a very competitive match up, with the score read 3-2 in the Serbian’s favor at the moment.
Can Rune cause an upset here and turn his season around with a quarter-final run? Or will Djokovic continue his unlikely title quest in London?
Djokovic vs Rune Odds
Ahead of our analysis, here are the latest bookmaker odds on this fourth round clash between Djokovic vs Rune:
- Novak Djokovic @ 1.30 | -333
- Holger Rune @ 3.50 | +250
Seven-time Wimbledon champion Djokovic is a strong favorite to win this match. Bookies put him at 1.30 (-333) to win outright, with Rune a moderate underdog at 350 (+250) to cause an upset. The handicap is set at 4.5 games, with Djokovic at 1.91 (-110) and Rune on 1.80 (-120) to cover the spread.
Set betting expects this one to end quickly for the No 2 seed. Odds favor a 3-0 result at 2.45 (+145), though a 3-1 scoreline isn’t far off either at 3.50 (+250). Total games are set at 39.5, with the over market returning 1.80 (-120) and the under at 1.91 (-110).
Djokovic vs Rune Preview
Novak Djokovic
Considering he was given no chance of playing at Wimbledon this year, Djokovic’s form is coming together nicely in London.
The world No 2 underwent knee surgery this time last month after withdrawing from the French Open due to a torn meniscus. However, his movement seems to be more than adequate on the grass, with Djokovic navigating his first three matches at Wimbledon with relative ease.
“I did move a lot better compared to the first two matches, I am playing more freely in that regard, but it’s far from okay,” said Djokovic about his knee recently. “We are working on the (physiotherapist’s) table all the time so that I am able to play every next match.”
Ahead of Wimbledon, it had been a strange year for the 24-time Grand Slam champion. After winning four of the five big titles in 2023, expectations were high. However, Djokovic has yet to fire a shot, failing to make a single final over the first six months of the season.
Late in the French Open there were promising signs, however, as some of the Serbian’s trademark fire returned. Now back on home turf at Wimbledon, Djokovic is a genuine title contender.
Holger Rune
Rune has continued to be mercurial this year. His best results have been a few small semi-finals, plus several Masters 1000 quarter-finals and a round-of-16 run at the Australian Open.
However, his 22-13 win-loss ratio in 2024 has taken a boost with three handsome wins already in Wimbledon. First the Dane saw off Soon-woo Kwon for the loss of just nine games. Then, he withstood the attacking threat of Thiago Seyboth Wild, dropping the opening set but coming through in four.
Most recently, Rune achieved a career-first, coming back from two sets to love down against Frenchman Quentin Halys in the third round, 1-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-1. The No 15 will be eager to build on this momentum and make his deepest run at a Grand Slam this year.
Djokovic vs Rune Prediction
There are a few players on the ATP Tour who significantly raise their level when up against highly ranked opponents (see our prediction on Frances Tiafoe late last week). Rune is one of those players.
Not only has he defeated Djokovic twice in five meetings, but he also has an excellent record of being competitive against big names in Grand Slams. He’s faced top five opponents five times at majors, winning at least a set in all but one of these encounters. Looking more broadly, across all tournaments he’s faced top five players 17 times–in 13 of these matches, he’s won a set or more.
Rune desperately wants to keep pace with his high-flying peers, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. He’s certainly got the talent, and has been able to compete with the best of the best in bursts. It’s just consistency he’s struggled with.
We expect he’ll once again bring his A-game on Monday against Djokovic, and give the world No 2 a big challenge in the round of 16. We can’t quite bring ourselves to back him, but betting on him to win at least one set, and cover the handicap is a good wager.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in four or five.
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