We’re on the cusp of the year’s third Grand Slam. While the Wimbledon draw doesn’t get announced until Friday, it’s never too early for some predictions and good Wimbledon odds now that we’ve seen a fortnight of grass action.
Who’s looking sharp on the green this year? Whose form is a bit concerning? Read on for some of our early ATP Wimbledon predictions, where we breakdown what to look out for at this year’s Championships.
Who’s in form?
It’s a small sample size, but over the last two weeks, a handful of players have really stood out on grass. Here’s who we’re loving so far on grass in 2024.
- Tommy Paul
Our top player of the grass season so far this year is Tommy Paul (image above). The American has been in brilliant form, with a win-loss of 6-1 and one title across the two events he’s played the past fortnight.
Not only did Paul just win Queen’s, but he’s also defeated two other in-form grass players recently. Last week, the world No 12 overcame both Jack Draper and Sebastian Korda en route to the title in London.
His shot making and athleticism has been spectacular on grass, making Paul a real handful.
- Jack Draper
Next behind Paul is Britain’s Jack Draper. The 22-year-old won his maiden ATP title in Stuttgart a week ago, defeating Matteo Berrettini in the final (no easy feat on grass). The Brit then backed up his BOSS Open title with a victory over world No 2 Carlos Alcaraz the next week.
While Draper was stopped in the Queen’s quarter-finals by Paul, we’ve seen enough of him to be confident that he’s in fantastic grass court form. His serve has been unbelievable, as has been his movement on the slick surface.
- Sebastian Korda
Korda is the only player on our list who hasn’t lifted a trophy over the past fortnight. However, the American has been consistent, making the final in Stuttgart and semi-finals in London.
The past two weeks, he’s gained wins over the likes of Paul, Tallon Griekspoor, Karen Khachanov and Grigor Dimitrov. Korda has long been seen as a top 10 talent if only he can stay healthy. This last fortnight on grass has well and truly confirmed that.
- Jannik Sinner
Sinner has only played one event, last week in Halle. However, the world No 1 went all the way and claimed his fourth title of the year. This was Sinner’s first trophy on grass as well, which couldn’t have come at a better time.
The Italian didn’t have it all his way in Halle. En route to the title he dropped sets across his first three matches, looking patchy against the likes of Griekspoor, Fabian Marozsan and Jan-Lennard Struff.
However, he built throughout the week and ultimately got the job done, which will inspire confidence ahead of Wimbledon.
- Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur had a brilliant week in s-Hertogenbosch to begin the grass season, claiming his second title on the surface. He was unable to back up the form, however, losing his opening match in Queen’s to Lorenzo Musetti.
Nonetheless, the Australian looked sharp when he played in the Netherlands. He did well to defuse the serving of Milos Raonic, plus dispatch tough grass players Ugo Humbert and Korda in the semi-finals and final.
Our early ATP Wimbledon predictions
Any prediction that comes before a draw announcement needs to be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, here are some of our early ATP Wimbledon predictions based on what we’ve seen over the last two weeks.
Jack Draper will make his first Grand Slam quarter-final
Draper has been massively impressive on grass so far. A maiden ATP title for the Brit has been a long time coming, considering his sheer talent.
Playing on grass, in front of a British crowd, and fit and healthy for the first time in a long time, we anticipate Draper will make a career-best run at a Grand Slam in London. The 22-year-old has already reached the round of 16 at a Slam, doing so at the 2023 US Open.
This year, we say he’ll go one step further and make the quarter-finals. Draper is all but assured of a seeding for the first time at a Grand Slam. This will help the Brit navigate the first few rounds, as will his rest this week thanks to an Eastbourne withdrawal.
From there, he’s got the ability to go toe-to-toe with the best on this surface, as we saw against Alcaraz in Queen’s.
Sebastian Korda will cause an upset
The rest of the seeds at Wimbledon will be thanking their lucky stars that Korda is seeded this year. The young American has looked like a giant slayer the past fortnight, and it wouldn’t surprise us if he does it again at Wimbledon.
Korda has a tendency to run hot. Think the start of last season, when he won Adelaide and made a deep run at the Australian Open. He’s threatening that kind of form on grass in 2024.
We wouldn’t put it past him to eliminate a Daniil Medvedev or even Novak Djokovic in the round of 16, depending on how the draw unfolds.
Jannik Sinner will win his second Grand Slam
From what we’ve seen on grass this year, it’s hard to bet against Sinner winning his second Grand Slam in three weeks’ time.
The Italian had to do some problem solving in Halle, but ultimately that will only serve to benefit him in London. With Alcaraz looking questionable, Djokovic’s knee an unknown quantity and the rest of the field a step behind, Wimbledon 2024 is looking like Sinner’s to lose right now.
Novak Djokovic will play Wimbledon 2024
One bonus prediction: Djokovic will play the year’s third Grand Slam.
Many expected that the seven-time Wimbledon champion would not take to the court in London, given that he underwent knee surgery after withdrawing from the French Open ahead of the quarter-finals.
However, he seems to have made a miraculous recovery. Last week, footage emerged of him hitting on a tennis court and doing agility training. Over the weekend, he arrived at Wimbledon to begin practicing there.
We expect that he will go ahead and play at Wimbledon 2024. Whether or not he can win the title is an entirely different question–we’d need to see him get through the first three rounds without any knee issues to have any degree of confidence in that happening.
Agree with our early picks? Make sure to let us know in the comments below.
