Favorites and Dark Horses for the Men’s Tennis Olympics

Usually tennis fans have to wait for six weeks after Wimbledon concludes until the next blockbusting tennis tournament. This is one of those rare years where the Olympics Games inserts itself, meaning that just two weeks after the latest Grand Slam has concluded, the world’s best will be preparing for the Olympics and another huge event.

This time, they’re competing for Olympic gold, with 64 men all vying for a medal in Paris this month. Can Alexander Zverev go one further than he did at Roland-Garros last month, and defend his crown as Olympic champion? Will Novak Djokovic secure the one prize that has eluded him all these years? What about the next generation, who debut at the Olympics for the first time – can Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner claim gold?

Let’s answer all these questions and more as we dive into everything there is to know about the men’s singles event at the Olympics tennis. From the seeds, to betting odds, favorites and dark horses predictions.

Men’s Olympics Tennis Seeds

Before we jump into some of our predictions for the men’s tennis at the Olympics, here are the top eight seeds at the tournament:

1. Jannik Sinner (Italy)
2. Novak Djokovic (Serbia)
3. Carlos Alcaraz (Spain)
4. Alexander Zverev (Germany)
5. Daniil Medvedev (Russia)
6. Alex de Minaur (Australia)
7. Hubert Hurkacz (Poland)
8. Casper Ruud (Norway)

These eight are the natural favorites heading into Paris this weekend. But do the bookmaker odds line up with these seedings?

Men’s Olympics Tennis Odds

Here are the top eight favorites to win gold at the Olympics this year: 

• Carlos Alcaraz @ 2.75 | +175
• Jannik Sinner @ 3.75 | +275
• Novak Djokovic @ 3.75 | +275
• Alexander Zverev @ 6.50 | +550
• Rafael Nadal @ 8.00 | +700
• Casper Ruud @ 13.00 | +1200
• Holger Rune @ 17.00 | +1600
• Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 21.00 | +2000

There are three clear favorites at tennis bookmakers, and it’s the top three seeds in the draw as well. However, third seed Alcaraz gets an edge, with the Spaniard returning 2.75 (+175) to win gold in his debut games. Djokovic and Sinner can’t be separated, with the pair just behind on 3.75 (+275).

Zverev and Nadal then sit in the fourth and fifth lines of betting, as moderate chances of winning gold at 6.50 (+550) and 8.00 (+700) respectively. Behind these two, odds begin to lengthen significantly, with Ruud, Rune and Tsitsipas rounding out the top eight.

Favorites to Win the Men’s Tennis Olympics 

You’ve seen the seeding and odds, so who’s most likely to win? We’ve dug into each player’s form, play style on clay and track record at big tournaments, and these are the three to watch out for at the Olympics.

Carlos Alcaraz

If you’re looking to bet on the 2024 Olympics tennis, then look no further than Alcaraz. The 21-year-old is in ridiculous form right now, having just won two Grand Slams in two months–doubling the number of majors he has to his name.

Alcaraz thrives on clay. While he’s an all-court player for sure, the extra time that the Spaniard gets on clay means he can run around his forehand more. Given that he’s one of the best in the game at generating pace, and can hit cross court, up the line or drop the ball short from anywhere, this means trouble.

The recent Wimbledon winner also has a positive head-to-head against both Sinner and Djokovic, his two biggest rivals at the Olympics. He defeated Djokovic with ease in London, and saw off Sinner at the French Open too.

Jannik Sinner

Before Alcaraz put together a brilliant June and July, Sinner had been the best player of 2024 by far. The Italian won the Australian Open–his maiden Grand Slam–to start the season, then backed it up with further titles in Rotterdam, Miami and Halle. 

Having become No 1 in the world a few months ago, writing Sinner off at the Olympics would be a bad move. He may not have been in the winners’ circle at majors since January, but the 22-year-old is still a genuine threat.

One concern with Sinner is his lack of clay court form. While this is partly due to a hip injury that saw him miss a chunk of the European clay swing, he did pick up three of his four losses this season on clay, and hasn’t won a title on the surface in over two years.

Novak Djokovic

Rounding out our favorites to win gold in Paris is 24-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic. The Serbian has not had his best season, going titleless for the longest time in a calendar year since 2005. However, if there’s one thing that all of Djokovic’s attention is placed squarely on this season, it’s winning Olympics gold.

Despite Djokovic’s dicey season, he’s still made a Grand Slam final, semi-final and quarter-final–more than most have achieved in their careers. Speaking of career achievements, Djokovic holds virtually every record, except for one: the 37-year-old has never won Olympic gold.

This will be his last shot at Olympic glory, and given the progress he showed making the Wimbledon final, he has to be included as a favorite this year.

Men’s Tennis Olympics Dark Horses

The favorites to win the Olympics are almost self-explanatory. But what about some of the more outside chances at winning? Who’s the best bet for those looking for a bit of a high return, and which players should be watched to cause an upset? Here are our dark horses at this year’s Olympic Games tennis.

Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils is listed as a 51.00 (+5000) underdog to win gold at the Paris Olympics. But we think he’s a far better chance. 

The 20-year-old just cracked the world’s top 20 for the first time this Monday, and has been playing some brilliant tennis. Over the weekend, he defeated world No 4 Alexander Zverev in the final of the Hamburg Open to win his first ATP 500 title and second overall.

That tournament was played on clay, and showcased just how dangerous Fils can be when he’s in form. The Frenchman saved 21 of 22 break points against one of the best players in the world and a recent Roland-Garros finalist, and was slapping forehand winners at will against Zverev.

Clay is Fils’ strongest surface, with a win percentage of 59.4 on the dirt. He’s a long shot, but with a 64-player draw and only best of three sets being played, it’s not inconceivable that he goes all the way in Paris.

Daniil Medvedev

Former world No 1 Daniil Medvedev doesn’t usually find him on many dark horse lists. The Russian is often among the top few favorites to win tournaments; but, tennis bookies have him as ninth favorite to win gold at the Olympics in 2024. Why? Because clay is his worst surface.

We rate Medvedev’s chances, however. Firstly, Medvedev has the kind of experience that you want at the business end of a tournament. The man has won a Grand Slam and lifted 20 different trophies in his career. That counts for something in pressure matches, regardless of the surface.

Secondly, while Medvedev is undeniably better on hard courts, he’s still no slouch on clay. Remember Rome last year, when he went all the way and won the title? His game may not be perfectly suited to the surface, but Medvedev is still a top five player. With odds of 26.00 (+2500) to win, we say the 28-year-old is a great dark horse bet.

Who are you picking to win gold this Olympics? Let us know in the comments below.