We’re now slowly getting prepared to betting on Australian Open and we are always looking for the top value bets ahead of the event and of course also during the tournament.
The Australian Open, one of the four prestigious Grand Slam tournaments in tennis, always attracts a keen interest from the tennis betting community. As for all tournaments, we need to spot value in the betting markets to get an edge on the bookmakers.
Outright Bets for the 2024 Australian Open
Men’s Winner
Djokovic is clearly the favorite among the bookmakers and we understand that, looking at his record in big tournaments lately. However, the odds is too low and we’ll see how much the current wrist injury will affect him.
It might be time for someone else this time. Alcaraz you say? Well yes he’s the only one that managed to stop Djokovic in a Slam last year but that was on grass at Wimbledon. He’s also a relative rookie at the Australian Open, as he didn’t play last year and only reached the third round the year before.
Sinner have shown the best form lately and also won the Most Improved Player award, reaching no 4 in the rankings.
A few other high-odds potentials, to consider in your betting is Jack Draper, Arthur Fils, Ben Shelton and Sebastian Ofner in our view. Read more about other potential players and the qualifiers in this blog post.
Women’s Winner
This is a tough one, Iga Swiatek is the favorite and we won’t mind a bet on her at which is really ok. The Polish player has been in impressive form down in AU and obviously she wants to get this Slam as well to add to her list!Lurking behind is Aryna Sabalenka and we feel she can definitely retain the trophy following a breakthrough last year, not at least in Melbourne.
Understanding Value Betting
Value betting is about finding bets that have a higher chance of winning than the odds suggest. It’s not just betting on who is likely to win, but betting on odds that are higher than they should be. This concept is crucial in making profitable long-term betting decisions and it’s the core principle for most “experts” giving advice and predictions.
Finding Value, What Does it Mean?
Basically, if the probability of an event occurring is higher than what the odds imply, then there is value in that bet. For example, if you believe a player has a 60-70% chance of winning, but the bookmaker’s odds reflect a 50% chance, there’s value in placing a bet on that player.
Spotting Value Bets at the Australian Open
Player Performance on Hard Courts:
The Australian Open is played on hard courts and some players perform better on this surface than others. Look for players who have a strong record on hard courts, even if they are not among the top-ranked.
Weather Conditions:
Melbourne’s weather can be unpredictable and can significantly impact players’ performances. Players who cope well with extreme heat or sudden changes in weather conditions can have an edge.
Historical Performance:
Some players consistently perform well at the Australian Open due to familiarity with the venue and conditions. Even if their recent form is not outstanding, the history at the tournament could indicate potential value. It might sound a bit off, but some players really rise to the occasion at these kind of events.
Underdogs with Potential:
The early rounds of the tournament can present value bets in the form of underdogs. An up-and-coming player or a seasoned player returning from injury could be undervalued by bookmakers.
Player Analysis:
For the last point, let’s look at the basics. Go beyond the surface statistics. Look at a player’s break point conversion rate, service hold percentage and performance in tie-breaks, especially in high-pressure situations.
Some Examples
- Dominic Thiem’s 2020 Run: Thiem, known for his clay-court prowess, reached the finals in 2020. His hard-court game had improved significantly, offering value for bettors who noticed this shift in his play.
- Caroline Wozniacki’s 2018 Win: Wozniacki, often underrated in Grand Slams, won the Australian Open in 2018. Her consistent baseline game and experience in dealing with Melbourne’s weather conditions made her a valuable bet. But only for those who did their research ahead of the tournament.
Bet Smart on the 2024 Australian Open
Betting on the Australian Open, or any tennis event, requires a blend of statistical analysis, understanding of the game and an insight into the specific conditions of the tournament. By identifying value bets, you’re not just betting on the likely winner, but you’re betting smart – where the odds are in your favor over the long term.
