Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul, Preview and Predictions, Italian Open

by Stefan Jonsson
Hubert Hurkacz

On Thursday the last two quarterfinals of the Italian Open will be settled following the wins for Zverev and Tabilo yesterday. First up we have 9th ranked Hubert Hurkacz as the favorite against American Tommy Paul, currently at 16 in the world rankings. The winner here will meet Stefanos Tsitsipas or Nicolas Jarry in the semifinals.

Hurkacz has played great all season and in Rome we’ve seen him beat Nadal easily as well as impressive wins against Etcheverry and Sebastian Baez, both usually good players on clay.

The 27-year-old Pole have looked decent on clay lately, even though it’s not his best surface to be honest. In 2024 we’ve seen an improvement though, and he have already taken 11 wins on clay and the title in Estoril. His serve is looking as strong as ever and it will be a challenge for Paul to get enough break points today.

Tommy Paul reached this round by beating Aslan Karatsev and Dominik Koepfer followed by an impressive win over world no 4, Daniil Medvedev. It was probably one of the best wins of his career. Among the Americans, he’s probably the best clay player and he is still to lose a set this week.

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Hurkacz and Paul has only met twice and they are all square at 1-1, with the American winning the last meeting at the Indian Wells last year. This will be their first meeting on clay.

Predictions and Odds for Hurkacz vs Paul

A really tough game and it feels it can go anywhere, but eventually I think Hurkacz’s serve will be hard to deal with for Tommy Paul and it might be the difference. The American might have an advantage in longer rallies but will it be enough?

The Pole has also been returning serves at a high level in all games in the Italian Open so far and he really managed to put pressure on the other players in their serves.

Prediction: Hurkacz to win and advance to the semifinals.


  • Hurkacz win, 1.67 | -150
  • Over 0.5 Total Number of Tiebreaks, odds 1.79
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