Let’s face it, we all were hoping for a final like this, when the Olympic tennis tournament started. The men’s final is no other than the 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic against the currently best tennis player in Carlos Alcaraz. We don’t need to introduce those two or how they match up, but we certainly want to preview the Olympic final and how it might shake out.
- When is the Olympic tennis final? On Sunday 4th August at 14.00 local time
- Where? Stade Roland Garros, Paris
- Outright odds? – Alcaraz at 1.40 | -250 and Djokovic at 3.00 | +200
Their way into the final – no sets lost
The two challengers for the Olympic gold medal have both sailed smoothly through their draw so far, both without dropping a set.
Carlos Alcaraz won his early rounds against the Libanese Habib, Tallon Griekspoor and Roman Safiullin, before clearly beating Tommy Paul and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
He seems to be at the top of his powers and bursting with confidence, which is no surprise as he comes off two consecutive Grand Slam titles. The most intriguing fact about this, he successfully changed back and forth between clay and grass, mostly without having preparation tournaments played. And now he faces off against the man who beat him in the 2023 Roland Garros semifinal, which he surely will want to get revenge for.
Novak Djokovic came into the Olympics off the Wimbledon final, which was a big surprise given his knee injury and zero preparation. So, the surprise in Paris isn’t as big, but he still wasn’t seen as the biggest favorite coming into the tournament. He started off his gold medal campaign with a casual win over Mat Ebden, before obviously facing his long-time rival, Rafael Nadal.
The 60th match between the two superstars went the way of Djokovic in straight sets, with a very clear-cut first set and slightly closer second. After this, he added straight-set wins against Koepfer, Tsitsipas and Musetti, all while looking very strong and fit. In the quarterfinal however, he seemed to re-injure his knee, but also seemed mostly fine in the semifinal against Musetti, where he did not receive any physical treatment.
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History between those two – on and off clay
Even though Carlos Alcaraz has only been around for the better of four years, their rivalry already is one for the history books. And they seem to have agreed on only facing off in the biggest of tournaments, as they only met in Masters, Slams or the ATP Finals. The head-to-head is even at 3-3, with their clay split being 1-1 with the mentioned semifinal in Roland Garros going the way of Djokovic.
We all remember Alcaraz cramping, trying to fight back, but ultimately falling to the Serbian. But if we look into the calendar year 2024, it looks much less even. Carlos Alcaraz has gotten back to his prime shape, winning two out of three Slams and beating Djokovic in the Wimbledon final.
On the other side, Novak Djokovic still has not won a title yet in 2024, neither an ATP tournament nor a Grand Slam. This is something that has not been seen for decades and tells the tale of his season so far. Not only the injury to his knee, the loss of the No. 1 spot, but also memorable defeats against Alcaraz, Sinner and other young guns have marked 2024 for him. But if he can win the Olympic gold medal and complete the career Golden Slam for his country, this will be of no big interest to him.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic Predictions – will Novak bear the pressure?
So, while the head-to-head seems even, the 2024 season and shape clearly favors Alcaraz, who will go into this as the favorite among all tennis sportsbooks. The question remains, whether the chance to win gold for Serbia will be pressure or motivation for Novak Djokovic. He is the biggest sports star of his country, a well-known patriot and will surely give his all for this possibility, not only to complete his own career. On the other hand, we all remember his chance for the calendar year Grand Slam, when he seemed to succumb to the pressure and lost his final against Medvedev in New York.Â
In the end, I believe that Alcaraz can win or lose this final, despite Djokovic surely being one of the toughest opponents in tennis history. His form is incredible, and if he plays up to the level we have seen this past week, he can hardly be beat. If he gets nervous or starts thinking about the stakes at hand, this might open the door for the killer instinct of Djokovic, who could then complete the biggest title collection ever in tennis.
Who do you have as your favorite?
