What began with 64 women has quickly been whittled down to just four. Iga Swiatek, Qinwen Zheng, Anna Schmiedlova and Donna Vekic. With three of these four getting medals on the weekend, the big question is, who will take out gold? And who will miss out?
Read on as we break down each of the women’s singles semi-finals at the 2024 Paris Olympics, digging into the odds for Swiatek vs Zheng and Schmiedlova vs Vekic, plus giving our analysis and prediction ahead of each clash.
Our Olympics Women’s Singles Semi-finals Predictions
Below we get into the nitty gritty of how we expect each match to unfold. But as a sneak peak, here are our Olympic women’s singles semi-finals predictions:
- Swiatek to defeat Zheng in straight sets
- Vekic to defeat Schmiedlova in three sets
But you didn’t come here just for a few bullet points – read on for a full breakdown of why we’re predicting Swiatek and Vekic to prevail this Thursday in Paris.
Swiatek vs Zheng Preview & Prediction
Top seed Swiatek takes on No 6 seed Zheng in the first match of the day, which will be played in the midday head on Court Philippe-Chatrier.
Swiatek vs Zheng Odds
To give context for our prediction, here’s a look at the latest bookmaker odds ahead of the match:
- Swiatek to win @ 1.11 | -900
- Zheng to win @ 6.50 | +550
Unsurprisingly, Swiatek is a heavy favorite to win outright in the first women’s singles semi-final. The Pole pays a whopping 1.11 (-900) compared to Zheng’s long odds of 6.50 (+550). Looking a little deeper into the odds, Swiatek is at 1.28 (-350) to win in straight sets, and has a -6.5 game handicap at 2.05 (+105).
Swiatek vs Zheng Prediction
We agree with the bookies: this match is only going one way.
Swiatek is the undeniable queen of clay, particularly when it comes to Roland-Garros. The 23-year-old has now won 25 matches in a row on the Parisian clay, having claimed the last three French Open titles. She’s also on a 23-match winning streak overall on the red dirt, with trophies in Madrid, Rome and Paris heading into the Olympics.
So far this tournament, Swiatek has been as expected. She cruised through her first three matches, passing Irina-Camelia Begu 6-2, 7-5, before routing Diane Parry 6-1, 6-1 and seeing off Xiyu Wang 6-3, 6-4. Most recently she had a bit of a lull against Danielle Collins, losing a set to the American, but was largely in control otherwise, winning 6-1, 2-6, 4-1 (ret.).
For Zheng, she’s had to fight much harder to make the final four in Paris. Her opening two matches were plain-sailing, seeing off Sara Errani with a rare double bagel, and Arantxa Rus for the loss of just six games.
In the third and fourth rounds, however, Zheng was pushed to a deciding set. She managed to overcome America’s Emma Navarro 7-6(7), 7-6(4), 6-1–but not without some controversy – and Angelique Kerber, ending the German’s career with a 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(6) victory.
Overall this season, Zheng has been sharp. She holds a 28-12 win-loss record for the year, with a final at the Australian Open helping propel her to a career-high ranking of No 7 in the world. Most recently, she won her first title of the season in Palermo just a fortnight ago.
However, we don’t think Zheng’s form will be enough to get her past Swiatek. The Chinese player will be tired after two tough three setters, and has failed to defeat Swiatek in six meetings so far. Typically, when the Pole drops a set on clay, she bounces back strong the next match–expect a similar outcome here.
Our prediction: Swiatek to win 2-0
Want to bet on the match? We recommend PariMatch for UK bettors.
Want to bet on the match? We recommend FanDuel or DraftKings for US bettors.
Schmiedlova vs Vekic Preview & Prediction
Moving to the second women’s singles semi-final, and it should be a much closer encounter between Donna Vekic and Anna Schmiedlova taking place later in the day on Court Phillipe-Chatrier.
Schmiedlova vs Vekic Odds
Looking at the latest Olympics tennis odds, here’s what online bookmakers are saying ahead of this clash on Thursday:
- Vekic to win @ 1.57 | -175
- Schmiedlova to win @ 2.37 | +137
Bookies have this one neck-and-neck, with Vekic slightly ahead at 1.57 (-175). Schmiedlova isn’t far behind, however, with the Slovak sitting on 2.37 (+137) to win. More detailed betting markets aren’t out yet at the time of writing this preview, however based on the outright odds, we can assume that all markets will be relatively even, with a slight edge to Vekic.
To find more odds for the matches, you can visit BetZillion, a platform reviewing most of the top betting sites.
Schmiedlova vs Vekic Prediction
While the first women’s semi-final was largely expected, this clash comes as a shock to many. Both Schmiedlova and Vekic are strong players that can contend with the top 20 on their day, but few expected them to make it this far.
However, in retrospect, the signs were there for Vekic. The Croat has had a strong season, looking particularly impressive in the last two months on grass. Her last two tournament results have been a final, where she narrowly lost to Diana Shnaider in the final of the Bad Homburg WTA 500, and a semi-final, with an impressive run to the last four of Wimbledon in July.
Now, she’s transferred that form onto clay and has been brilliant in Paris. Vekic’s opening two matches were wins as expected, overcoming Lucia Bronzetti 6-2, 7-5 and Bianca Andreescu 6-3, 6-4. In the third round, Vekic produced one of the upsets of the Olympics so far, ousting second seed Coco Gauff in straight sets to book her spot in the quarter-finals.
In the quarters, Vekic escaped by the skin of her teeth. She took on Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk, and got home by the slimmest of margins, winning 10-8 in the deciding set tiebreak.
For Schmiedlova, her path to the Olympics semi-finals has been just as impressive, if not more so. The 29-year-old began against Brit Katie Boulter, seeing her off for the loss of just six games. She then ended the medal hopes of former top 10 player Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-4, 6-4, before taking on French Open and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini.
Schmiedlova produced some of her best tennis to knock out Paolini, winning 7-5, 3-6, 7-5. She then went two from two against Wimbledon finalists, defeating 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova 6-4, 6-2 to book her spot in the final four.
We genuinely believe either woman could win this match. We’re giving the edge to Vekic because of her greater consistency over the past two months, albeit on a different surface. However, with the result so up for grabs, we’d recommend taking a betting line such as ‘each player to win a set’ or even betting the total games market instead of choosing a winner outright.
Our prediction: Vekic to win in three sets.
What’s your take on these two matches? If you’re confident, head over to Cloudbet to make a bet on the Olympics women’s singles semi-finals.
