We’re at the pointy end of the French Open now, with just four men and four women remaining in Paris. Thursday sees the men take a break, while both women’s semi-finals are contested. First up on Court Philippe-Chatrier are Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff.
Swiatek comes into Roland-Garros as the two-time defending champion, vying for her fourth title in five years. She’s the reigning world No 1, riding a 17-match winning streak and hasn’t lost here for almost three years. Can Gauff stop her? The American is in fine-form, but will have her work cut out for her.
Read on for our Swiatek vs Gauff prediction, where we break down the bookmakers’ odds, look at the pair’s head-to-head and give our analysis of who’s most likely to win this match up.
Swiatek vs Gauff Odds
What better place to start our Swiatek vs Gauff predictions than by looking at what the bookies have to say about this clash. Here are the latest odds ahead of their semi-final:
- Iga Swiatek @ 1.12 | -450
- Coco Gauff @ 6.00 | +500
The odds are about as lop-sided as a semi-final gets, with top seed Swiatek well ahead on 1.12 (-450). Gauff is a heavy underdog on 6.00 (+500). She’s been given a +5.5 handicap at 1.80 (+100), or you can bet the other side of this, with Swiatek -5.5 at 1.72 (-138).
Set betting sees this one ending early. Bookmakers have the lowest odds for Swiatek winning 2-0, with this paying 1.44 (-225).
Head-to-Head – Swiatek 10, Gauff 1
Part of the reason for these imbalanced tennis odds is the one-sided head-to-head between Swiatek and Gauff. They’ve played 11 times over the last three years, and Gauff has only won once.
Admittedly, her victory did come just late last year, when she edged Swiatek in a Cincinatti three-setter. Since then, however, Swiatek has beaten Gauff a further three times. Each were in three sets, with the most recent being just a month ago in Rome, 6-4, 6-3.
Remarkably, each of Swiatek’s 10 wins over Gauff have been in straight sets.
Swiatek vs Gauff Prediction
Gauff is in great form at Roland-Garros, but we simply can’t see her getting past Swiatek on clay.
As their head-to-head shows, conditions need to be nigh on perfect for Gauff to scrap her way past the Pole. Given that their French Open semi-final isn’t on a hard court, and isn’t in front of an American crowd, we think it’ll just be a bridge too far for Gauff.
The one thing the American has going in her favor is a complete and utter lack of expectation. Given that she’s lost to Swiatek in straight sets on 10 occasions, no-one will be expecting Gauff to do anything different this time. She’ll be able to play her most free-flowing tennis, take risks, and if things come together, she could well make this fixture closer than it has been in the past.
This must also be a tough match for Swiatek to get up for mentally. Regardless of how professional she is, the 22-year-old has got to have one hand on the trophy already in the back of her mind. With a 10-1 head-to-head against Gauff, and no Aryna Sabalenka on the other side of the draw anymore, you wouldn’t blame her.
Swiatek’s potential lack of focus, plus Gauff’s ability to play free of expectation could lead to this one going the distance. We expect a Swiatek win either way, but betting on her to prevail 2-1 would net a healthy return.
Prediction: Swiatek to win 2-1
Iga Swiatek – Tournament So Far
Swiatek has had a fascinating French Open so far. Here’s what her path to the semi-finals has looked like:
- R1 – Defeated Leolia Jeanjean 6-1, 6-2
- R2 – Defeated Naomi Osaka 7-6(1), 1-6, 7-5
- R3 – Defeated Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2
- Round of 16 – Defeated Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0
- Quarter-final – Defeated Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2
A major scare came for Swiatek in the second round against Naomi Osaka. The Japanese former world No 1 pushed Swiatek to her limits, even holding a match point at one stage as the Pole survived, just.
Outside of this big challenge, Swiatek has dropped just 11 games in four matches, cooking up three bagels and a breadstick en route to the semi-finals.
Coco Gauff – Tournament So Far
For Gauff, her French Open has been largely plain-sailing. Here’s what her first five matches have looked like:
- R1 – Defeated Julia Avdeeva 6-1, 6-1
- R2 – Defeated Tamara Zidansek 6-3, 6-4
- R3 – Defeated Daria Yastremska 6-2, 6-4
- Round of 16 – Defeated Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-1, 6-2
- Quarter-final – Defeated Ons Jabeur 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
It was only in her quarter-final against Ons Jabeur that Gauff faced any real challenge. Even then, after dropping the first set, the American locked in and won the next two sets with ease, dispatching the former world No 2.
Other than the Jabeur match, Gauff has been in a hurry. Two of her four matches ended in an hour or less, with just 18 games conceded across rounds one to four.
What’s your bet prediction for the match today? Can Gauff pull off what would be an upset of epic proportions in Paris? Let us know in the comments below.
