Tsitsipas vs Arnaldi Prediction: Greek’s Time to Shine?

by Bren Gray
tsitsipas

We’re approaching the business end of Roland-Garros now, with the round of 16 beginning this weekend in Paris. One of this year’s French Open title hopes, Stefanos Tsitsipas, takes on the up-and-coming Matteo Arnaldi, in what promises to be an intriguing match up on Sunday.

Tsitsipas is playing a high level of tennis, but Arnaldi has nothing to lose and is on the rise. Who prevails in this fourth round fixture? Read on for our Tsitsipas vs Arnaldi prediction, where we look at the latest betting odds and identify the best wagers to make on this match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas: Flying Under the Radar

Seeded ninth at Roland-Garros this year, Tsitsipas has been quietly making his way through the draw with lethal efficiency. 

The Greek has dropped just the one set, a tiebreaker in the second round to Daniel Altmaier. Outside of that, he’s been quite brilliant, seeing off the dangerous Marton Fusovics in his opening match and most recently racing past Zhizhen Zhang, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1.

Coming into the French Open, Tsitsipas was one of the form players of the season on clay. The 25-year-old bounced back impressively from a strange 12 months that saw him briefly dip out of the world’s top 10. A third Monte-Carlo title was his crowning achievement, while he also made the final in Barcelona and quarters in Rome.

As a past Roland-Garros finalist, Tsitsipas is very much flying under the radar this tournament. All eyes are on the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic, but Tsitsipas will fancy his chances of going deep in Paris too.

Matteo Arnaldi after beating Zverev

Matteo Arnaldi: Man on the Rise

Taking on Tsitsipas in the fourth round is the 23-year-old Arnaldi. Despite being on the cusp of the top 30 at a career-high ranking of No 35 in the world, few would have expected Arnaldi to make it this far at the French Open.

The Italian pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament so far in the second round, ousting No 6 seed Andrey Rublev in straight sets on Friday. He played some brilliant tennis, out-foxing Rublev and refusing to go toe-to-toe with the Russian in his own game. Can Arnaldi do the same against Tsitsipas on Sunday, or will it be a bridge too far?

Ahead of this week, Arnaldi has steadily been climbing up the ATP world rankings. While his clay record this year is a modest 6-4 including Challengers, he did make the quarter-finals of Barcelona with a good win over Sebastian Baez. In the last year, Arnaldi has defeated the likes of Alexander Bublik, Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz. 

Can Arnaldi go one step further than he did at the US Open, and make the quarter-finals in Paris?

Stats That Matter

Ahead of our Tsitsipas vs Arnaldi prediction, here are a few stats we considered:

  • Tsitsipas and Arnaldi have not played before on the ATP Tour.
  • Arnaldi gained his maiden top 10 win in 2024, defeating Taylor Fritz in three sets.
  • This is Tsitsipas sixth appearance in the Roland-Garros round of 16, with the Greek holding a 3-2 record in this stage of the tournament.
  • In his most recent match, Arnaldi played clean tennis, striking 47 winners to just 19 unforced errors.
  • Against Zhang, Tsitsipas was clinical on both serve and return – facing no break points, and converting five of six himself.
  • This time last year, Arnaldi was ranked outside the world’s top 100.
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Tsitsipas vs Arnaldi Predictions

We like Arnaldi, and think the Italian has a bright future ahead of him. However, it’s rare that a young player puts in a performance like Arnaldi did against Rublev, then backs up well the next match. Against an efficient-looking Tsitsipas, we expect those hoping to see Arnaldi make his big breakthrough will be sorely disappointed.

Instead, we’re picking this to be the match where Tsitsipas announces himself. The Greek has been flying under the radar, but with a dominant performance here, he’ll position himself as a genuine contender in Paris.

Best Bets to Make on Tsitsipas vs Arnaldi

  • Tsitsipas to win @ 1.20 | -500
  • Tsitsipas to win 3-0 @ 2.00 | +100
  • Tsitsipas -7.5 handicap @ 2.37 | +138

Agree with our Tsitsipas vs Arnaldi predictions? Think this will unfold differently? Let us know in the comments and check out our tennis betting page for more info on odds this match!

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