Two in-form players go head to head at the US Open as Brandon Nakashima takes on Alexander Zverev. Both of them have played strong tennis up until this point, and we’re assuming that it will continue.
If you add good serving into the equation, you get a pretty clear idea of what might be valuable in this matchup. While the games and overs are certainly the right idea, we’re going to take the opening set because it is, in many ways, the most important one for this match.
The odds are decent, and the likelihood of it happening is also pretty high, so this is a fairly logical bet that has plenty of value.
US Open Day Seven Best Bets
So, we’re backing the over 10.5 games in the opening set simply because both players have been really good at holding serve. The first set matters a lot because it will set the tone for the match.
Due to that, we expect both of them to show up focused and determined. Nakashima has been serving at an even more impressive level than Zverev, but we expect the German will be able to keep his serve fairly comfortably.
Nakashima doesn’t have the biggest power and relies more on precision, which won’t be enough to break Zverev easily. The only real risk to this bet is if one of them has a horrific game, but that’s not very likely.
What makes this a good value bet is exactly that: the value. A tennis match is very long, so backing four sets or 40+ games is less appealing. This is just one set, and everything we’ve seen from them so far tells us that this is likely to hit. Both players will be careful, wanting to start well, they shouldn’t do anything risky.
- First set over 10.5 games @ 1.83 | -120 | 5/6
Good servers in good form on a surface that benefits both of those just make this play the most logical one.Â
Nakashima vs Zverev Preview
The matchup is fascinating because it’s a bit of a clash of styles. Nakashima is a typical US player. His serve is amazing, his forehand is on point, and his backhand is serviceable.Â
He’s comfortable at the net, though he’s not the best mover nor the quickest. He doesn’t rely too much on slices or drop shots, either. Zverev, on the other hand, is a typical baseliner who has recently shifted his focus.
Zverev used to be more defensive, standing back and using his length to win rallies. These days, he’s stepping in more and attacking, which makes him a more potent tennis player. His recent results certainly back that up.
In general, their form has been pretty good lately. Neither player is getting beaten easily, which makes this likely to be a very close match that could extend beyond three sets.
Zverev favorite
Zverev is the favorite to win because, overall, he is the better player. He has won both matches they’ve played so far in their careers, one of which took place at the US Open and went to four sets.
As you can see, everything points to a really close match, and four of the seven sets they’ve played have gone over 10 games. Two of the most recent three sets went over 10.5 games, so, in general, this is the right bet to back.
Both are likely to hold serve comfortably to start until they warm up. We expect the opening set to finish 7-5 or 7-6 for someone because, after a few games, some cracks will show.
Overall, it’s just the statistically likely outcome that gives us great odds, making it a value bet. If you’re feeling risky, you can always opt to back the over on games for the match, which is set at 37.5.
The odds are the same as those for over 10.5 games in the opening set but just know that in their most recent match, the 10.5 bet would have hit while the games bet wouldn’t.
