We’re getting closer to Sunday’s big match, a repeat of last year’s Wimbledon final, Carlos Alcaraz against Novak Djokovic.
Just two weeks ago, we questioned if the Serbian superstar would even be fit so play, now we are seeing another matchup with the next gen Spaniard. Let‘s see who has the better odds to win the title, along with our best predictions for the final, based on the current form and results.
Their way into the final and their season so far
The 2024 season could not have gone much different for the two opponents so far – while Alcaraz won his third Grand Slam and another Masters, Djokovic has struggled so far. The Serbian all-time great has not won a title yet and either fell to one of the new stars or to his own injuries. He could not win neither the beloved Australian Open, nor the French Open and injured his knee in the process of the title pursuit at Paris.
So, coming into the Wimbledon tournament, he was not regarded as the favorite in any way. But with strong performances, solid tennis and a bit of luck, he made a strong case for another title. His performance against Musetti was on par with the regular level known from him, so he will be a threat for any opponent.
Even though Alcaraz has had a more up and down season than per usual, he had a much stronger build-up than Djokovic. His entry into the season at the Australian Open was less than ideal with the quarterfinal exit, followed by the first of several injuries in South America. He managed to win another Masters at Indian Wells ATP, before injuring his forearm and hardly playing on clay before Roland Garros.
Alcaraz was in a similar position before Paris as Djokovic before Wimbledon, but he also managed to win the title. His Wimbledon run was solid in the beginning, but his matches against Tiafoe and Humbert were a bit too close for comfort. His level has continuously risen throughout the tournament, and his best tennis isn’t too far away.
Previous head-to-head
We all know that about every statistic will be in favor of Novak Djokovic, regardless of the opponent you compare him to. But with Carlos Alcaraz, the head-to-head isn’t as easy to determine. We all still have their final of 2023 in our minds, or their epic encounter at the Roland Garros semifinal. The total match statistic shows a 3-2 advantage for Djokovic, with the last two matches in favor of the Serbian. But the previous matches showed a typical pattern – one player outplaying the other, until they start changing strategies and the match goes one way or the other.
Since we cannot really determine Djokovic‘s level of fitness, let’s assume that Alcaraz will have the upper hand in the long run. But Novak proves time and time again, that he will not be defeated easily in any matchup. Especially on grass, where Djokovic probably is the second best ever player behind Federer, he should get the benefit by surface. Alcaraz on the other hand is not at his best tennis yet, but has proven once again that his will to win and adapt will reign superior on any day.
Odds and Predictions
In total, their matchup seems pretty even, which is reflected in the odds as well. Alcaraz is the slight favorite at 1.67 | -150, while Djokovic has his odds at 2.20 | +120. In total, Alcaraz should be the favorite, given his previous performances and the fitness, but never rule out Djokovic.
My prediction would be a five set victory for Alcaraz, sealing the Roland Garros – Wimbledon double.
Try live betting on the Wimbledon final over at .What is your prediction for the 2024 Wimbledon final? Comment below!
