Well, I guess that all our predictions (and most others) were not right about the final of the 2024 women’s final at Wimbledon. Former Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova will be facing the 2024 Roland Garros finalist Jasmine Paolini for the title, both not known to be grass specialists. Let us look into their head-to-head, way into the final and find a prediction based on these.
Their season and tournament so far
The Czech doubles specialist Krejcikova, who was ranked No. 32 before this tournament and will be up to No. 14 at least after, has not had a spectacular season so far. After her Grand Slam win in 2021, her results were up and down for some years, with another highlight being her Masters victory in Dubai 2023. This season, she hasn’t won any tournament yet and even lost in the first round of Roland Garros. So, most experts did not have her on the shortlist exactly for a deep run at Wimbledon, where her previous best result was the fourth round.
But after beating Kudermetova, Volynets and Bouzas in the first three rounds, she only seemed to face an unbeatable Danielle Collins for a tough matchup. However, Krejcikova won in straight sets with a strong performance throughout, making good use of her touch and net approach, which has made her a top-5 doubles player. She went on to beat another top player, Jelena Ostapenko, before upsetting the top favorite Rybakina in the semifinals. All-in-all a very impressive run, where she took advantage of any weakness in her opponents’ game and played probably the best tennis of her season so far.
On the other side, Jasmine Paolini is easily having the season of her life. Not only reaching the Roland Garros final, achieving a career high rank of No.7, but also winning a maiden Masters title both in singles and doubles. Obviously, she came into Wimbledon full of confidence and with a high level of tennis, but the grass wasn’t her best surface to put things lightly. Before 2024, she had never won a match at Wimbledon and her only preparation tournament was Eastbourne, where she won her first match due to retirement and lost her semifinal.
But at the Championships she started off strong with straight set victories against Sorribes Tormo, Minnen and Andreescu, where the latter seemed to finally be close to her level again. She profited of the retirement of Madison Keys in the round of 16, where the American was up 5-2 in the final set before injuring her leg. While that win was very lucky, she beat Emma Navarro with a stellar performance in quarters and came through a very tight match in the semifinals against Donna Vekic. So, while her overall level on grass seems still questionable, Jasmine Paolini is surely the more confident in in-form player, given her performance this season.
How do they stack up?
In a final full of surprises, how are the chances of those two players and did they ever play against each other? They did, but it was back in 2018 at the Australian Open, which seems like part of another life, six years later. Jasmine Paolini surely is performing much better now than she ever had before and Krejcikova herself played her best tennis well after that, too. The Czech star won the matchup back then, but as already mentioned, their head-to-head might not be the best dedicator here.
They both are excellent and successful doubles players, who feel comfortable at the net and with touch shots, with Paolini having the upper hand in physicality. Both don’t have one big weapon, but rather rely on a balanced and varied game-style with both a solid serve and return game. Based on the numbers, Paolini has a slight advantage on return (46% of games vs 34%), while Krejcikova might be a bit more dominant on serve, even though the numbers show 68% of serve games won for both players. The Czech’s game might be a bit more favorable on grass, while Paolini has the edge for her current shape and confidence.
Will their previous Slam experience matter?
One of the biggest differences is their previous Grand Slam record, where Krejcikova has won her only final and Paolini recently lost her maiden final, both of them at Paris. And of course, this could play a role in the nervousness on court on Saturday, where Paolini has the chance to win her first title while Krejcikova already has that success in her bag.
Predictions for Krejcikova vs Paolini
Given that factor, I think that the final will be very close and ultimately decided by Paolini and the level of play she can produce. If her form is anywhere near the Navarro match, I don’t see her losing this final. But if she struggles with the expectations and chances, we all know that Krejcikova will play the most controlled and solid tennis to beat her.
So, the final really is wide open, which is also reflected by the odds, who have the Czech as a slight favorite at 1.67 | -150 currently, with Paolini being the underdog at 2.20 | +120.
Try live betting on this match over at .Personally, I agree that Krejcikova is the safe bet to make here, but I love Paolini’s fearless and aggressive approach to tennis and hope she can get it together once more. If she produces her best tennis, it will be hard to beat her in any case and my prediction is a three-set victory for Paolini on Saturday.
What’s your view on the 2024 Wimbledon women’s final?
