Elena Rybakina v Barbora Krejcikova – Post Match Analysis

Krejcikova stuns the title favourite Rybakina

Elena Rybakina came into this match as the top seed remaining in the draw and the favourite to win the title, even though she had a 0-2 head-to-head against Barbora Krejcikova. The duo had played each other only on the hard courts, the last one being in 2022 at the Ostrava Open which Krejcikova won in 3 sets. The one prior to that was at the Grampians trophy in Melbourne in 2021, which was also a 3-set victory for Krejcikova.

But grass is arguably Rybakina’s favourite surface and she had a stunning 19-2 (90.5%) win-loss record at Wimbledon before this match, the third-best in the open era, only behind former champions Ann Jones and Steffi Graf (Caveat: the win% is only over 21 matches, but still impressive).

Prior to the start of Wimbledon 2024, Krejcikova was 0-4 (head-to-head) against top 20 players this year. She has now beaten three top 20 players consecutively, all in this tournament – Danielle Collins (11) in the 4^th round, Jelena Ostapenko (13) in the quarterfinals and Elena Rybakina (4) in the semifinals.

The match felt one-sided in the first 20 min when Rybakina raced to a 4-0 lead. Rybakina was serving at a very high level (average speed ~115 mph) and was hitting winners all around the court. Krejcikova was unable to handle the pace of Rybakina’s groundstrokes was her game was passive. Though she broke Rybakina twice in the set, which was promising, however, it took her 8 games to hold her first service game. She came to the net only once, won only 47% of her first serves and managed only 3 winners in the entire set. Rybakina was going for her shots and dictating the rallies. She hit 19 winners in the set against 15 unforced errors.

Krejcikova different player from the 2nd set

Krejcikova was a different player from the second set onwards. She adjusted her game, coming to the net more and was more aggressive. She might not possess Rybakina’s powerful serve, but she started finding the spots on her first serve and her first serve % went up to 74% in the second set compared to 61% in the first set. After both players holding serve till 3-2, Krejcikova found some depth on the returns and broke Rybakina’s serve to go up 4-2. Rybakina’s first serve % on the other hand continued to dwindle in the 50s (52% in set 2), which added more pressure in her service games.

It was a tense 9^th game when Krejcikova walked up to serve out the set at 5-3. Starting off with 3 first serves, including 2 aces, she was up 40-0 and let it slip a little from there to deuce. Rybakina sensing the opportunity, attacked the second serve of her nervy opponent, but it was too late. Despite hitting 3 double faults in the game, Krejcikova came through when Rybakina found the tape on another routine backhand. The Czech had arrived and it was her aggressive mind set which turned around the match, hitting 14 winners compared to just 3 in the first set.

Krejcikova continued her momentum into the 3^rd set and her variety was causing some problems for Rybakina, adding some drop shots and volleys now and then. Krejcikova found more power on her groundstrokes and she was one dictating the rallies. Rybakina’s backhand wing, which is usually rock solid, looked shaky. The error count kept climbing up, 29 combined in the first 2 sets. Krejcikova mounted the pressure in the 7^th game of the set, stepping up to hit a powerful cross-court forehand winner after Rybakina missed a forehand volley and earned two break points. She only needed 1, as Rybakina committed another backhand unforced error to get broken. 

Sensing the match slipping away, Rybakina raised her intensity, starting the game with two forehand winners. However, it was not enough, as Krejcikova was solid from the baseline, changing direction at will. Serving with authority, Krejcikova produced an ace, one forehand winner and drew two forced errors from Rybakina’s backhand wing to hold a crucial game to go up 5-3. From there on, Rybakina held her serve but the Czech’s aggressive groundstrokes were enough to neutralise her game. Krejcikova held to love to reach her first ever Wimbledon Singles final. Rybakina could not generate a single break point opportunity in the final set!

Emotional Krejcikova

Krejcikova was filled with emotion during her on-court interview and credited her mentor and fellow Czech Jana Novotna, the 1998 Wimbledon Women’s Singles champion. The last and only time Krejcikova reached a grand slam final in Singles was in 2021 at the French Open, which she went on to win. 

This was a major upset, as Rybakina, the only former Wimbledon Singles Champion (2022) remaining in the draw, was the favourite to win the title this year, especially with most of the top seeds eliminated earlier in the tournament. Krejcikova will face the 28-year-old Italian revelation, Jasmine Paolini in the final, who became the first woman to reach back-to-back grand slam finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon since Serena Williams did it in 2016.