WTA Rome Final: Swiatek vs Sabalenka, Preview and Predictions

by Stefan Jonsson
Iga Swiatek WTA

The final we all expected, the world no 1 against the world no 2, Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka in the 2024 Italian Open Final will be a great battle to watch on Saturday!

This should be a great ending to what have been an entertaining women’s tournament at the Rome Masters.

The match is scheduled to be played on Saturday 18th May at 17.00 CET.

Can anyone stop Iga?

Top seed, and without doubt the best in the world at the moment, Iga Swiatek is the clear favorite (once again) something she should be used to by now. At the top betting sites, we see the early odds for Swiatek at 1.30 | -350.

So far in Rome she’s been outstanding and managed wins over Bernarda Pera, Yulina Putintseva, Angelique Kerber, Madison Keys before out-manoeuvring Coco Gauff yesterday to reach the final in the Italian capital.

Looking at her opponents, she’s been up against some solid performances, not at least from Coco Gauff who played some great tennis in the semi-final. Coco said herself she would have most likely won that match if it was against any other player…

Following a slow start going 2-0 down in the semi, the 22-year-old took control of the match and in the 2nd set she broke Gauff’s serve twice to come out with a 6-4, 6-3 win in the end.

swiatek training
Swiatek training in Rome

Aryna Sabalenka had a slightly tougher draw which eventually led to a challenging semi-final against American Danielle Collins. After winning the first set 7-5, where she got close to blowing a big lead, she broke Collins serve twice in the second set (6-2) and the victory was never in doubt.

The Belarusian are also dealing with a slight back injury that she sustained the in the fourth round vs Elina Svitolina. She is now playing without pain, however she has stated she will not hesitate to withdraw from the Rome final if the injury comes back, seeing as the Roland Garros is coming up very shortly.

Re-match of Madrid Final

Around 2 weeks ago, these two met in the Madrid Open final where Sabalenka gave the Pole a tough challenge, actually failing three match points before losing 7-4, 4-6, 7-6. It seems clear at the moment, if anyone can get Iga out of balance, it’s Sabalenka.

She commented about facing Swiatek again: “I think the level is there, the tennis is there, that I’ve got everything to get this win. I just have to focus on myself, I guess, and not rush things, wait for the right shot to finish the point.”

H2H: They know each other well following their 10 meetings and Swiatek is up 7-3 in this moment.

Betsafe Tennis
Parimatch Tennis Betting UK

Predictions and Odds

The Belarusian will offer a proper fight in the final. She knows she can beat the world no 1 if she’s at the top of her game, and she has beat her also on clay. Her big serve and baseline game should be the main threats from the 26-year-old.

The conditions on the clay courts in Rome, which is similar to the French Open, suits Swiatek very well though. She will have time to execute her strong clinical strikes, even against a strong opponent as Sabalenka. Looking at the stats in these two tournaments, she has won her last 26 matches and only lost 2 sets!

Prediction: We bet on Swiatek to win this match and write more history!

Interesting odds;

  • As we likely can see a tiebreak or a three set match we’re looking at Over 12.5, Total games won by Swiatek at odds 1.95 | -110.

Check out our betting section to find more info about wagering options.

Swiatek is aiming to become just the third women ever to win the double of Madrid-Rome, in the last 15 years. A rematch of the Madrid final and the Roland Garros champion vs the AO champion, a match not to miss!

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