The first week of action at the 2024 Rome Masters is done and dusted. What did we learn from it, aside of thermos flasks being a dangerous object? Let us investigate the surprises and developments so far and what they mean for the road to Roland Garros.
ATP: Both GOATs are out of the tournament.
It was the first time in years that Rafa and Novak were in the same draw and the fans were eager to see a direct matchup. Considering that they were on the opposite end of the draw and Rafa’s current shape, no one really expected them to meet up, but to see both out is quite surprising.
While Rafa met an in-form Hubi Hurkacz and expectedly lost there, the exit of the World No. 1 was a lot more surprising. Of course, he had been hit by that bottle and I see a lot of fans asking for an investigation. But if you saw the match, he was just plainly outplayed by an outstanding opponent. Alejandro Tabilo served better, played better from the baseline and simply was the better player, leaving Novak with a lot of work before the second Grand Slam of the year.
What are the other men doing?
With now the top 3 players out of the Rome Masters, the draw seems wide open for the challengers on the ATP tour. And the trend of Madrid, where the men’s field seemed to be a lot harder to predict than earlier this season, seems to be ongoing. There have been a few surprises already, the biggest arguably being Novak. But there is also Casper Ruud losing to Kecmanovic, Dominik Koepfer beating Tiafoe and Ben Shelton falling to Zhizhen Zhang.
Other top stars did not look comfortable yet, as Rublev only beat Giron by one break and Tsitsipas almost lost to Struff again, who slowly seems to get his personal Kryptonite. Holger Rune won against Nardi, but the scoreline of 6-4 6-4 looked a lot better than he did through most of the match. So, all these players definitely need to gain some steam as they progress through the tournament.
The ones that looked comfortable in their first matches are easy to name: Medvedev, Zverev, Dimitrov, Khachanov and Fritz look to be the favorites for now. Especially Taylor Fritz stands out to me, as he previously struggled on clay quite a bit. But ever since his final run in Munich, it seems that the American No. 1 can hang on clay now, which will help him tremendously in climbing up the ranks.
And let’s not forget the drama! I don’t know if it is the Italian climate, the energy from the (sometimes a bit too) fiery crowd or just the Grand Slam approaching, but tempers got heated in the first rounds already. From Kotov and Shelton having a bit of a celebration matchup to Sebastian Korda blowing kisses to the Cobolli fans behind him, the broadcasters had a lot of things to talk about for sure. The ATP is well under way and right now I would think we could see a Zverev / Medvedev final.
WTA: Another one for Iga and Aryna?
On the WTA side it looks a bit more clear-cut, as we already saw in Madrid. And with Elena Rybakina being out of the tournament once more with an illness, the two favorites aren’t hard to name in Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. So, are we in for the same “old” final once again?
We might be, as both Swiatek and Sabalenka made light work of their first matches. And those last ones were quite a test in Putintseva and Yastremska. But they have another hard challenge coming up, as Sabalenka will run into Svitolina next and Swiatek will face a back-to-strength Angelique Kerber. Both these matchups will be fun to watch and both challengers surely have an extra chip on their shoulders. Svitolina is always on fire when playing a Russian or Belarussian player these days, and the semi-Polish Kerber will enjoy the battle with Iga as well.
Who are the Rome dark horses for the title?
So while the favorites need to focus on their next opponents, who do we think are the underdogs with a good shot in this? Danielle Collins is still on her streak and recently also collecting extra points with sportsmanship, while Jelena Ostapenko can obviously win matches with 50+ unforced errors, taking a swing at about everything in reach.
But two other players stood out to me in the first week and should not be overlooked. Greek No. 1 Maria Sakkari has not had the best of seasons so far, but as I mentioned in my rivalries article, she has the game to do damage amongst the top-10. And she was out there handing out a bagel to Anhelina Kalinina yesterday, so keep your eyes open for her! And then there is Madison Keys, coming off her deep run in Madrid and still playing lights out on the clay.
I still believe that Swiatek and Sabalenka are the heavy favorites to win but given the draw I wouldn’t rule out betting on a surprise in the final like Swiatek / Sakkari.
Matchups to look out for in the next round:
- ATP: Auger-Aliassime/DeMinaur, Fritz/Dimitrov, Tabilo/Khachanov
- WTA: Swiatek/Kerber, Gauff/Badosa, Svitolina/Sabalenka
Who are your favorites for Rome after week one? Let us know in the comments!
