Level: ATP Masters 1000 | Prizemoney: €7,877,020 | Surface: Clay | Singles: 128 Tournament Overview
Welcome to Rome, the worlds Gladiatorial home within the catacombs of the colosseum, and on the rich red clay courts of the Foro Italico. Sinner and Alcaraz out. Rafa and Novak in. As the saying goes ‘out with the old and in with the new’. Or have I got that the wrong way around.
This tournament has been dominated by two players over the last two decades. Novak and Rafa have won the 16 of the last 19 events in Rome. The courts of Rome have always played relatively slow. The heavy conditions can be attributed to the low altitude location of the tournament. The air is dense and players comfortable battling for hours in long gruelling matches will be rewarded here in Italy’s capital.
Draw Analysis and Key Match ups
Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud control the top quarter of the draw this year. Cerundolo and Shelton should get through their first few rounds but will need a near miracle to make it past the number 1 and 5 seeds. The Norwegian is deadly on a slow clay court and his groundstroke RPMs are devastating. Whilst, Novak has the experience in Rome, he knows how to win here and should be fresh and ready to show why he’s still number 1 in the world.
The second quarter is headlined by Alexander Zverev. The German won the title here in 2017, he’s had a patchy last few weeks but will be looking to find some form prior to Roland Garros. His potential quarter final match up is Grigor Dimitrov. It’s difficult to pick a clear winner here, however Grigor got the best of Sascha in Miami about a month ago. Lorenzo Musetti is also in this quarter. Passionate Italian fans are enough to inspire anyone, and Lorenzo loves the showtime. He’s constantly making the highlight reel whether its a flamboyant flick of his one handed backhand or a delicately placed drop shot he will be great to watch here in Rome.
The third sector of the draw is somewhat stacked, with Tsitsipas, Rublev, and Auger-Aliassime. Felix has finally found some rhythm after a seriously rocky twelve months. After a finals appearance in Madrid and a big win against Casper Ruud it’s fair to say that the explosive Canadian is back on track.
Andre Rublev is coming of some red-hot form in Madrid and with one of the most formidable awe-inspiring forehands on the tour he is a serious contender. However, the courts here in Rome are slower than Madrid and Andre won’t be as comfortable.
The final part of the draw sees defending champion Daniil Medvedev, and Rafael Nadal take the spotlight. Rafa has won this tournament 10 times, he embodies the word gladiator and has the potential to beat anyone in the draw. Medvedev isn’t a conventional clay courter but performs well here in Rome and will be looking to defend his title.
Another key match up here is Tommy Paul and Francis Tiafoe, an all-American battle. Two seriously athletic players with explosive games and big serves. Neither of them love the clay courts, so it will be interesting to see how they adapt to the surface.
Italian Stallions to watch out for
Italian tennis is clearly on the move and even without Jannik Sinner there is an extremely strong Italian presence at this tournament. Matteo Berrettini returns to his home town tournament; the big Italians monstrous game is powerful enough to hit anyone off the court. He will be looking to make a run here in Rome especially after showing some recent form taking out the ATP 250 in Marrakech.
There are also some talented next gen players including Flavio Cobolli and giant killer Luca Nardi. I was lucky enough to witness Cobolli’s game firsthand at the Australian Open this year and I believe he has the potential to be a real star. He moves extremely well, shows natural flair and has the ability to transition to the net to showcase some punchy volleys. Luca Nardi is another Italian star of tomorrow, he lived up to his potential at Indian Wells taking out Novak Djokovic. With a solid all court game he is dangerous and with the ‘tifosi’ behind him, you just never know.
Predictions for Rome Masters
My top four players when betting on the Italian Open this year are Zverev, Tsitsipas, Ruud and Medvedev. Zverev is a former champion in Rome, his experience should hold him in good stead. Tsitsipas and Ruud are both extremely comfortable on slower clay and demonstrate great court craft on this surface. Daniil was 2023’s champion and although it doesn’t make a lot of sense, he performs well on the courts of the Foro Italico.
I think we will see Stefanos and Sascha in the final, but my winner this year is the ‘Greek Freak’ Stefanos Tsitsipas. He has the game, the form and the belief. Will he channel his inner Spartacus and take out the Internazionali BNL D’Italia?
